The ongoing crisis in Bangladesh has far-reaching implications that are essentially not limited to the fall of Sheikh Hasina. To tell you the truth, this crisis is leading to a resurgence of Islamic extremism what's been contained under the rule of Hasina's Awami Legue. The violence against the minorities and and the leaders of Hasina's party not only exemplifies a comeback of extremist organisations like Jamaat E Islami but also raises the serious question of whether Bangladesh will become the next Afghanistan or Pakistan?
The answer to this question is not straight forward. To find the root of the evil, we need to look back to 1971 Bangladeshi Freedom movement that was supported by India. At that time Bangladesh was divided into two groups. One group was advocating freedom and democracy and wanted to break any ties from Pakistan and extremism at any cost. The other group was helping Pakistan and Islamic extremism by helping Pakistani army. They were against the reforms that Hasina's father Ziaur Rahman was preaching. In order to establish the Islamic extremism, they formed an Islamist movement or an army of Razakars.
https://m.stacker.news/46680
Chaitey gelaam odhikaar, hoye gelaam razakar! Translates as Practice your rights and become the Razakars, the kings
(During the war, the Pakistani Army committed genocide on the populace. The Razakar militias actively supported their killings of an estimated 3,000,00 people.)
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It's not a secret that with the help of India Bangladesh were able to crush the Islamic Movement (or these cruel Razakars) of 1971. The leader of the movement was convicted of war crimes for helping the Pakistani military in the 1971 massacre and was subsequently hanged. However, the narrative of Islamic State for a country who has more than 90% of Muslims never ceased to exist completely. Hasina's father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was assassinated along with most of his family members during a military coup on Aug. 15, 1975, signals towards the same. Although many analysts call it a military coup, but there are many who mentioned it as a terrorist attack sponsored by Pakistan ISI.1 Hasina and her sister were living in Germany at the time of assassination. Hasina could only return to Bangladesh in 1981 and started her political journey. Aftermath this, the Islamic Extremism remained asleep for most of the time barring a few attempts at awakening.
It is clearly evident aftermath the recent protests that the sleeping devil of Islamic Extremism has made a political comeback in Bangladesh after the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government was toppled on August 5. It's looking more dangerous this time because it has come veiled under the ignorance of school and college students.
The way minorities have been treated since Hasina's ouster affirms the possibility of the next Pakistan or Afghanistan. But this isn't a single reason, there are many other which tells towards the same outcome for Bangladesh in coming times. Let's take a look why Bangladesh will join the list of Islamic Extremist states.
- It's not that only minorities are being treated with contempt in today's Bangladesh, but anyone who shares views with Awami League is being treated with violence.
On Thursday, a large group of student protesters and political activists, wielding various weapons such as bamboo sticks, iron rods, and pipes, launched an attack on Hasina's supporters in Dhaka. The assault prevented Hasina's supporters from reaching the former residence of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
Mujib Mashal, South Asian bureau chief of The New York Times, in a video post on social media platform X said that it was a “complete mob rule.....The victims of yesterday are perpetrators of today; men armed with clubs and pipes (many identified themselves as BNP and Jamaat) thrashing and chasing away anyone they suspect of being Awami League,”2
- The aftermath of Hasina's resignation has seen the rise of student leaders in governance. These students, who played a crucial role in the protests, are now part of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. They have begun taking on responsibilities like managing traffic in Dhaka, a symbolic gesture of their commitment to restoring order. However, their lack of political experience raises concerns about their ability to navigate the complex challenges of governance and the potential for further instability.
Next Afghanistan?
For Bangladesh, the risk of descending into a similar state of chaos like Afghanistan's, marked by a humanitarian crisis, economic collapse, and a severe curtailment of civil liberties of disarray is present only if
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The interim government fails to unify the country and address the root causes of discontent.
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The potential for extremist groups to exploit the political vacuum remains for longer duration.
However, the situation and location of Bangladesh both are very different from each other. While Afghanistan had always remained under the effects of Taliban, an Islamist Extremist Organisation, Bangladesh has largely managed to keep Islamist forces on the periphery of mainstream politics.
In an exclusive interview with The Daily Star, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, strongly rejected the notion of Bangladesh becoming another Afghanistan.
"Yes, there are influential religious groups like Jamaat and Hefazat that excel with mobilisation, and there have been terror groups like JMB. But these entities don't influence politics and society to the extent that you see in Afghanistan, or Pakistan for that matter," Kugelman added.
I also hope so. But then you find someone sharing from ground zero the reality of Bangladesh becoming as extreme as Afghanistan is cannot be overlooked. Just read it —
“Our homes, our shops and our temples have been vandalised,” said Kajal Ghosh, a 46-year-old Hindu pharmacist who was among dozens who gathered in Dhaka to protest against the violence this week. “People think that Hindus are supporters of the Awami League, so they tried to push us out of the country.”3
Even with all so much of happening with minorities in Bangladesh, I personally can't foresee Bangladsh turning into a proper Afghanistan.
Next Pakistan?
Pakistan’s political system has been marred by repeated military interventions, which have undermined democratic processes and contributed to a cycle of instability. Bangladesh too has a history of military involvement in politics, with periods of direct rule interspersed with civilian governments, has not exerted the same level of control over the government as seen in Pakistan.
But again, if the interim government doesn't lead to a political and social calmness within the next few months, it will be leave no other choice than a military interference in politics. Ultimately, the path forward will depend on the military's willingness to facilitate genuine political reform, address public discontent, and restore trust in state institutions. It's also true that the ouster of Hasina's from Bangladesh only bece possible while military decided not to stand against the students in recent protests.
If you ask me, it will most probably the same Bangladesh as has been before August 5. Or, if not restored by this interim government in time, it can be another Pakistan. There's no chance of it becoming a Afghanistan. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Bangladesh can navigate this transitional phase without succumbing to the pitfalls of a Islamic or hybrid regime.