Bob Murphy was about to abandon his recession prediction that was based on the inversion, but then Monday hit.

I am shocked the curve has been inverted this long. Even surpassed the late 70s where it was inverted for almost 2 years. 

grayruby

As the Federal Reserve manipulates the money supply and interest rates, the yield curve becomes a less reliable indicator of economic activity. The more the Fed plays havoc with the system, the more we see the boom-and-bust syndrome.

Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)

econ

By Frank Shostak
> As the Federal Reserve manipulates the money supply and interest rates, the yield curve becomes a less reliable indicator of economic activity. The more the Fed plays havoc with the system, the more we see the boom-and-bust syndrome.

## Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)
![](https://m.stacker.news/44838)

Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)