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89 sats \ 7 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 2 Aug \ on: Surging Food Prices Easily Translate Into Unrest in Vulnerable Regions charts_and_numbers
I had never heard of such an index. Nice chart! I did some research and found the original data source.
The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each of the groups over 2014-2016. A feature article published in the June 2020 edition of the Food Outlook presents the revision of the base period for the calculation of the FFPI and the expansion of its price coverage, to be introduced from July 2020. A November 2013 article contains technical background on the previous construction of the FFPI.
Monthly release dates for 2024 (tentative): 5 January, 2 February, 8 March, 5 April, 3 May, 7 June, 5 July, 2 August, 6 September, 4 October, 8 November, 6 December.
https://m.stacker.news/42983
https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
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32 sats \ 6 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug
it is indeed an interesting chart for those who want to anticipate geopolitical crises, especially when you think of the Arab Spring which clearly took place in the shadow of food price inflation
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68 sats \ 5 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 2 Aug
I don't quite understand how this index can be a tool for anticipating conflicts. Was it possible to anticipate the war in Ukraine? Or was the rise in grain prices was consequence?
https://m.stacker.news/42986
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89 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Aug
I don't think this was a predictor for the Ukraine invasion, but the rise in grain prices had begun prior to that.
The war in Ukraine exacerbated a trend that started because of poor EU green energy planning. A colleague of mine, who also happens to be a farmer, was talking about this before the war.
Basically, the EU badly overestimated how much renewable energy capacity they were going to have, which led to a large share of global natural gas being diverted to European energy demand. The alternative use for that natural gas was fertilizer production. Fertilizer prices skyrocketed, but there still wasn't enough to fertilize all the crop land. That led to a price spike that most people are attributing to the war, but was coming either way.
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32 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug
no, it is about anticipating conflicts in the poor regions of the third world, which can then also develop into proxy wars of western states. like the recent Arab Spring
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94 sats \ 2 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 2 Aug
I think I understand. With the rise in the price of food and especially cereals, the poorer regions will suffer more and this could lead to conflicts. Is that right?
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64 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug
In these states there is no social system as we know it, which means that the small upper class, which usually keeps power in check with the military, immediately begins to waver when the need is so great that parts of the military change sides because they themselves are affected.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 2 Aug
In these states there is no social system as we know it, which means that the small upper class, which usually keeps power in check with the military, immediately begins to waver when the need is so great that parts of the military change sides because they themselves are affected.
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