Agree on all of that. I would say that statistically it's very likely for your transaction to be in the reorged timechain, because if it were included in a block in the first place, it means that the miner found it economically reasonable. Thus, a timechain reorg would simply change the hash of the block your transaction is included in, most likely.

This excluding the fact that a reorg could be malevolent, for example a reorg financed by a nation state aimed at mining empty blocks. In such a case, your transaction will not be included in the reorged timechain anymore. But that's a bit of a corner case I guess