I know it's early in the period but is there something going on here?

Variance likely explains a good chunk of it.

Look at the 1 year or 3 year chart ... "hashrate" (which cannot be directly measured) does not go up or down in a smooth line.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

Though many miners have said they are still adding capacity, and some rigs are now being energized for the first time after initial installation.

A 10% rise in difficulty at the next difficulty adjustment would not be all that surprising though.

Noticed smth similar at the start of the previous epoch. Eventually it flattened out completely. Weird..