Fed aid is what changed the trajectory the last couple of years. Biden upped the game so much it reversed decades long trends.
Also, state allocations might be tied to enrollments, which have been declining steadily since about 2016.
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Many states moved away from "butts in seats" funding models in the last 20 years. Now number of degrees, time to degree, starting salary of graduates etc. drive funding models in higher ed. But understand the big, name schools are driven by research funding, which is Fed led.
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I was just speculating. None of the places I've been had their state funding tied to enrollment. I have seen some really sketchy practices around financial aid, though, which obviously scales with enrollment.
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The trend I'm speaking of goes back to the 90s. But yes from the mid 2010s to now the shift and reversal is happening.
Tennessee has a drive to 55 program to try to manage the pending "enrollment cliff," plus expand economic development.
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