While I used to work at OpenAI, all of this is based on publicly-available information, my own ideas, general field-knowledge, or SF-gossip. - Leopold Aschenbrenner
Worth reading, specifically around "Counting the OOMs," was just updated on June 6th
Reading this article through to the end now I think it is good stuff and insightful. The thing that stands out is the inherent statist bent to the author's call to arms for setting up a quasi-Manhattan project team to tackle AGI and ensure national security, alignment and supervision as the inevitable super intelligence emerges.
In other words: make sure the Americans get AGI before the "Chinese" or whoever.
I question what makes him think the US Govt is a more ethical and moral player though? He unironically cites Gulf War 1 (Advanced US tech vs old soviet Iraqi tech) and the A-Bomb as situations where the US used superior technology to commit unilateral murder, going on to imply that whoever gets AGI first (and specifically the ability to train AI AI-Researchers as a feedback loop) will be the first ones to the "bomb", but then seems to insinuate that it can only be the Americans who are allowed to have this tech.
He also talks about Covid and what a difference a couple of months of head start can make, even if it turns out it was the USG-affiliated labs behind the leak the whole time.
I would be keen to read another take on this topic that does not lean on the state or government to save the day, because they won't.
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there are actually quite a few...this is the best one in my opinion.
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Thanks for sharing this. I found it very interesting. But where to from here as a pleb? I flip flop between brushing it off to a degree and it being a very real mega-innovation that changes everything.
Maybe in that sense it is like Bitcoin, if you don't "get it" you just sit on the blue pill sidelines ignorant, but those of us who get it are going deep.
What else do I need to read or think about to "get" AI?
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maybe @cascdr can jump in on this
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I cant wait to get daylight reader. Thank you for sharing this.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 3 Jul
I haven’t read that yet but I linked to a great pod with him recently.
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It's def a long slog read. Starting to understand what the long tail to inference data is and whether "Big AI" gets to AGI by 2028.
a great pod
Cool ill check it out.
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