154 sats \ 3 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 1 Jul \ on: Eurozone Industry Faces Severe Downturn econ
Economic Outlook Eurozone Q3 2024: Growth Returns, Rates Fall

Key Takeaways
  • Lower energy prices have enabled the eurozone economy to return to growth and the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates. We expect a return to potential growth by 2025, with inflation at 2% by mid-year.
  • This would permit the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the deposit rate bottoms out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.
  • We have revised our growth forecast for Spain upward to reflect rising productivity, increased manufacturing, robust household balance sheets, and rapid disinflation, among others.
  • The risks associated with a divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), political uncertainties in Europe, and deteriorating economic relations with China have intensified since our last projections in March 2024.
  • These risks could affect business and investor confidence, financial stability, and the smooth transmission of the ECB's monetary policy to the eurozone economy. They could also translate into lower growth and higher inflation.
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240624-economic-outlook-eurozone-q3-2024-growth-returns-rates-fall-13155488
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32 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul
sorry, but all growth forecasts by economists and state institutes have been steadily revised downwards in recent years. if you discount the massive government spending program, the eurozone has been in recession for a long time. and that cannot change under the conditions we find here. the eurozone is losing massive amounts of capital abroad and that is an indicator that cannot be overstated
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52 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 1 Jul
predictions are worth what they are, they are just predictions. Only time will tell. Maybe the shake-up in France will change something.
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32 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul
the problem with these forecasts is that, as already mentioned, they are published by state-paid agents. these agents represent the narrative of the respective government and thus lead the public by the nose. this results in a considerable misallocation of capital and political mistakes are also repeatedly initiated in this sense.
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