What I am wondering is when this spreads outside china, a lot of chinese investors were using US, Canadian and AU real estate as a hedge, but if they hit negative gearing on their local property, shouldn't they be forced to dump their international holdings and bring that capital back home?
yes, it depends on the type of investor. many hedge funds, pension funds and others who have been allowed to invest in China are likely to have made considerable write-downs over the last two years. this is a problem that i would describe as the export of deflation, and one that will continue to occupy us. it is possible that this deflationary shock will one day turn into a global deflationary crisis on the asset markets. who knows? there is too much concealment, we have too little information, and we are now seeing how many German banks have suffered considerable losses in the commercial real estate sector in America, for example.
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