More of a coincidence.

I don't believe I can time things much beyond just getting a rough feel for whether we are in the bull or the bear. I do remember how in July 2022 things did feel very bleak, we had already accumulated more than 50% drawdown by then.

But truth is I wasn't waiting for the right moment. In July 2022 I simply decided I was going to give it a shot and went ahead.

I started the whole plan with a long term mindset and accepting that staying underwater for years was a very serious possibility. I actually still think it is. More generally, whenever I make my financial planning, I never assume I'll get timing right. I just try to backtest my plans and understand what was the probability of coming out ahead with such plans in the past. But there's always a risk, no matter how much you plan.

One important thing I've learned is to simply accept there is always risk. As long as you manage to be right 51% of times, and keep playing, you'll make it.