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The statement in the title is frequently presented as a challenge to Bitcoin's adoption, even an existential risk long-term.
Today I was reading The Sovereign Individual and came across this quote:
In 1903, the Mercedes company said that "there would never be as many as 1 million automobiles worldwide. The reason was that it was implausible that as many as 1 million artisans worldwide would be trainable as chauffeurs."
In my opinion, it rings the same tune as "the majority will never be able to store their keys in cold storage because we can't expect more than 1% of the population to even know how to open a terminal ".
What are your thoughts?
I agree with you. This way of thinking is extremely present-biased. Back in the 1990s people also thought internet would be too complicated for the average person.
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Indeed, it's a great way to look at it.
I have toyed around with a couple of friends and Muun. Didn't explain much to them, I only wanted to provide the "look it's just this easy" pitch. The only self custody instruction I provided them was "keep this backup PDF well secured and everything will be fine'.
So, they are technically self-custodying, using on chain and lightning without a clue of what's going on. I guess we are slowly getting there.
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I think we’re at a time in history where people value access over ownership. See: subscriptions vs one time payment, outsourcing anything and everything to a third party, including money, debt, etc. “Elites” (to use a cringy term) seem to think things will keep going this direction, but I think the pendulum will swing back, especially as bitcoin takes the stage.
That being said, I feel like it might take a generation or two to completely phase out third party custody. I think a lot of people would rather keep their keys with a “secure third party” than take responsibility for their financial well-being.
To be fair, I don’t think it will be completely unreasonable to use a third party secure storage. Give the “new bank” your keys for a small fee, and you’re back to password/MFA with a thick extra layer of ID verification for recovery. They’d be more like a security company than a bank. Fear of losing keys will drive people to this at first.
Because at the moment, self-custody is a foreign idea. But it’ll just be a matter of time before this doesn’t work anymore.
Great Mercedes quote btw.
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I feel both the maximalist zero trust mentality and also the I don't mind handing over the keys to a serious third party one.
Honestly, I think we polarize this unnecessarily at times. Why can't someone have part of their stack in their own custody, and part on one or multiple third parties?
This can also change over time. Third party goes draconian? Move everything to self custody. Third party is offering good conditions? Move a chunk back with them.
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So actually, the happy medium here is collaborative custody multisig. Check out Unchained - they have a bunch of material on this.
With 2 of 3 multisig, you can have full control of your wallet, and the secure third party just acts as a backup for the third wallet in case something happens to one of yours. It’s by far the most secure option imo because it eliminates all single points of failure.
I think this is what most people will use in the end. For now, multisig especially feels foreign to people imo. Just a matter of time before the mentality shifts.
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The mainstream public will never self-custody not because writing 12 words on a piece of paper is too difficult but because physical defense against $5 wrench attacks, mental defense against scams, and cyber defense against hacks are too difficult. (Yes, you don't have to defend cold storage against hacks in theory).
Most importantly, mainstream public treats banks and governments as their friends, although imperfect, and doesn't understand why people have to go through all the trouble and responsibility of being their own bank when banks already exist.
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Great quote.
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