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I don't agree with this assertion
simply throwing more data and compute at these models can plausibly create AGI, or something close to it.
I do not see AI as actual intelligence. The words give a false perspective of what these pattern recognition algorithms are doing.
I do not believe AGI is real. First off it is just speculation about what could happen. Its way to aspirational vs. technical. Way to much magic. Call be a skeptic. When I see strong evidence I will reconsider.
The nonsense with non-signed content is the assumption people want the truth. Some say they do but they do not what their framing to be challenged. These tools will change the media but tactics will adapt. Where I do agree with him is that trust will continue to decrease. I just don't think most people or institutions seek to show or find truth.
I am skeptical of AI leading to fewer jobs. In a short period individuals will possibly be put out of work but I reject the idea that tech advancement leads to long term fewer things for people to do. Things that people are qualified or experienced to do may decrease but that is temporary. In tech revolutions of the past we have seen this. Essentially this argument is that we will solve all the problems and not have anything to do.... I'm prepared to be wrong but I'm not alone with this perspective.
I pretty much agree with you on all three counts. Especially the first and last.
As to signing content, people may not be interested in the truth, but they are even less interested in being embarrassed. How will the outrage machine work when outrageous (but fake) things are everywhere and impossible to discern from the real things?
Consider any of the recent scandals: it is great fun, apparently, to be scandalized by p diddy's treatment of women, but if we all know the videos are probably fake...more scandal. People like scandal and there is a strong interest there alone for making sure things are accurate enough to continue warranting the outrage.
Signing content does not have to be about seeking truth; it might just be about having someone to blame. If no opinion or action can be reliably attributed to anyone, I suspect there will be demand for cryptographically signing content if for no other reason than so we can still get made at the people who hold the opinions and do the actions.
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