I find myself often thinking about the market cap of Bitcoin relative to other asset classes such as silver, gold, bonds, etc. It serves as a good progress bar on the road to hyperbitcoinization and also gives you a good idea of the expected price appreciation given we follow the ‘happy path’.

And the market cap is a very easy thing to calculate for Bitcoin, mined supply times price. Or is it? We all know that 1) some Bitcoin are provably lost and 3) most importantly many Bitcoin are unprovably lost. In my opinion they cannot be counted in the market cap calculation because it’s as if they never have been mined in the first place. At the same time we cannot be sure if they are truly unspendable.

That means the true market cap is probably below 1 trillion at this moment meaning Bitcoin as a lot more price appreciation ahead than expected.

What do you think?