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Do you think covenants will be coming any time soon?
Yes, massive and growing traction in the Bitcoin developer community around covenants + extending Bitcoin script via the Great Script Restoration or similar. Hard to give timelines but we're getting closer steadily to rough consensus.
Will they be able to in the end or will it go to the supreme court?
If Tornado Cash and Samourai cases are lost then mints are 100% a simple prosecution as they're already far "worse," legally.
And even if so, is there no way nym mints wouldn't be able to exist?
They can definitely exist, but will incentivize rug pulls, and the few good ones will be scared off after one mint op gets prosecuted. It's very, very, very hard to maintain OPSEC as a nym when a nation state wants to track you down.
And, will MSB apply to a small group using a fedimint?
Supposedly there is some grey area if its a fedimint with enough signers but not sure the specifics of that. Agreed that it would be a much harder legal sell if it's actually community custody, but no fedimints are that ATM AFAIK. If they remain very small and very niche they might just not be worth pursuing for the US gov but hard to say.