I think that's the logical direction to go, but my understanding is that converting commercial real estate to residential is very costly.
This is very true. I am weighing the costs/benefits right now regarding an old (1890) bank building in a remote suburb. It's got the charm residential shoppers would love, but the costs to convert would price the units out of the market. On a much larger, more important scale, the situation is worse. I had the opportunity during my career to spend time in offices in the Empire State Building, The Chrysler Building, etc. Even in the late 90s the spaces were small, poorly lit, and lacking the ability to support high speed internet, etc. Now, it must be 10 times worse. There was always plenty of space available even then, because the costs to modernize were too high. Attempting to convert these classic buildings to residential would be financially impossible.
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What if those older buildings were to remain commercial?
Are there enough commercial buildings that could be renovated to residential economically to support the ones that can't be?
Would it be easier to renovate them into hotels?
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Regarding the 1890 building, we are keeping it commercial. Retail on the ground floor, walk up offices in the second floor, and a radio station on the third floor. Regarding the big office buildings, I don't know. Plumbing would be a huge issue. Think of all the bathrooms. Also, the walls are plaster, which makes electrical improvements a nightmare.
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What's your best guess as to how this plays out?
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I really don't know. It depends on the structure. A local mall near me has suffered from vacancies. A few years back a giant Macy's box structure went vacant. A major hospital repurposed the building as medical facilities. I can't envision each usage, but I expect the "free market" will find entrepreneurs who will figure it out. The only time the government lets the free market step in is when they're fresh out of stupid ideas.
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The only time the government lets the free market step in is when they're fresh out of stupid ideas.
True. I wonder what those stupid ideas will be this time.
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