307 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 1 May \ on: Bitcoin paradigm shift thought experiment bitcoin
Best case scenario- Bitcoin supplants gold as the dominant global, neutral money and is widely held by individuals and institutions. Significant adoption as a medium of exchange is underway. There is a vibrant ecosystem of layer 2/scaling solutions to support the base layer. Hash rate is stable or growing. Base layer and ancillary layers are in demand but not stretched beyond capacity.
Worst case scenario- Bitcoin was only ever seen as a trading vehicle and way to make fiat gains. It didn’t reach its full potential and faded into obscurity when number failed to continue going up aggressively. It is still around in a decade but no one cares besides hardcore bitcoiners. Everyone else has accepted their CBDC, complete surveillance, perpetually exploited and extracted from, fate. Maybe Bitcoin will survive the ice age and be hope for a future generation but this generation has failed.
When I think about your worst case (which I do from time to time) I always come back to: "What is happening to USD during all this?" Will people just bend over and take hyperinflation? Maybe so, but like Christine said, if there is an escape that escape will be used. Anyways, it's interesting to think about.
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Your best case scenario strikes me as more or less the path we're on. That's nice.
I didn't include it in my description, but part of my worst case scenario is that adoption stalls out because most people don't see the upside in using bitcoin compared to whatever digital fiat is in use.