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Will the yen's crash now be followed by a chain reaction?
1218 sats \ 59 comments \ @TomK 27 Apr econ
The crash of the yen in recent days points to massive problems in Japan. With a national debt of over 250% in relation to gross domestic product, it is basically impossible to stabilize the currency through interest rates. The central bank's only option is therefore to sell US government bonds and use the proceeds to exchange dollars for yen.
However, this is likely to meet with open resistance from the Americans. Is the Japanese central bank now trapped? As always, the victims are the consumers, whose purchasing power is being systematically eroded. At the same time, we witnessed the collapse of another American regional bank last night.
The attack by the American authorities on Bitcoin and its self-custody philosophy is also telling. Are we at the beginning of a major banking crisis that will lead to a sovereign debt crisis? Strong nerves are needed now!
https://m.stacker.news/28385https://m.stacker.news/28386
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190 sats \ 3 replies \ @_b_o_n_e_s_ 27 Apr
Is 1.7% a crash? I guess it doesnt slow anytime soon so can get much worse but calling it a crash at less than 2% feels a bit like some MSM clickbait to me, or am I reading it wrong?
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125 sats \ 2 replies \ @0xIlmari 27 Apr
This is not degen crypto markets. In Forex, any daily move bigger than 1% is considered fairly significant.
Plus, there's a clear trend over the past few weeks.
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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
Right. That's an enormous move
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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @_b_o_n_e_s_ 27 Apr
I see, because its a sovereign currency. That does make sense, yes. Guess I'm biased from observing bitcoin crashes over the years
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101 sats \ 8 replies \ @bellabaxter 27 Apr
Your posts remind me of Zerohedge. A daily dose of doomerism.
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25 sats \ 3 replies \ @anon 27 Apr
@TomK is SN's town idiot. Satfarmer pur-sang, just knows how to rile up people. Most of his posts lack any depth. Better ignore him like half of the people here do, already.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
aren't you the clown who recently posted some infantile garbage about ethereum and chart analysis?
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @anon 28 Apr
Wow, if even you manage to annoy the TA morons, you really are appealing to the lowest common denominator...
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 28 Apr
Why don't You tell us about Your great analysis of Ethereum, Einstein? This was really breathtaking.
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113 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
I'm a super optimist by nature. no one could be more optimistic about the clown world than me, believe me.
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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr freebie
Man, l thought they wouldnt collapse so fast... I actually had faith in them.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @bellabaxter 27 Apr
Same for me
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75 sats \ 0 replies \ @TNStacker 27 Apr
It is called the 'Dismal Science's for a reason
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74 sats \ 6 replies \ @john_doe 27 Apr
I highly agree with this: "the victims are the consumers, whose purchasing power is being systematically eroded." However I don't think this is a shared sentiment for many people in Japan. First, because there is still a strong industry, and second because of the shrinkflation which has been very effective at hiding the debasement of the currency and the inflation. So I wouldn't call it Zimbabwe yet, or consider it the drama of the year yet. Bottom line I think our biggest problem is what you highlight at the end: "The attack by the American authorities on Bitcoin and its self-custody philosophy is also telling". Coming back to Japan after a trip, I heard the announcement to say that we should declare gold above a given amount (which was small)... The new law for "crypto" exchanges following the US, the capital control for people with multiple currencies, the KYC required to use ATMs to withdraw cash from bitcoins, etc... Bigger than the Japanese Yen rate our biggest challenge I think will be to keep our freedom to transact. Based on that, I started to use Vexl, it's a great app!
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52 sats \ 4 replies \ @bellabaxter 27 Apr
Would you rather choose vexl or robosats?
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10 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
I am in a little village on Crete with limited internet access and still cannot open the 'vexl' wepage. But what I read so far on X' it sounds interesting
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52 sats \ 1 reply \ @bellabaxter 27 Apr
I have a personal distaste for mobile apps when it comes to bitcoin finance but I might consider if it broadens the crowd.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
Understandable. But the extreme push of the legacy system toward KYC now is really crazy. And I hear it again: 'it's so easy now with the ETFs' or: I have my 'coins' on Binance.
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52 sats \ 0 replies \ @john_doe 27 Apr
It may have changed since then, but last time I looked at robosats the market to transact BTC to JPY or JPY to BTC was not quite there, same for other platforms like Bisq. Furthermore to pay on Internet in many cases it was a hassle without a credit card or without installing a non open-source app to do a bank transfer. So what remained as a choice was cash. And with Vexl you can use it to create your peer to peer network to transact with cash and sell or get bitcoins.
With Vexl also you can ask the identity of someone so you are pretty much free to choose any means of transaction. It could be BTC to gold, BTC to JPY in a cafe or meetup. Vexl favors these kind of physical ways to do exchanges like this and with Vexl this is at your discretion. With robosats I think this is more Internet focused.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
very cool. thanks for the tip, I'll take a look right away
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63 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hamstr 27 Apr
OMG that's ridiculously high! likely result from buying their own bonds. If I remember correctly
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63 sats \ 21 replies \ @siggy47 27 Apr
I don't understand the reluctance of the BOJ this time. They always intervened in the past year or two. Why is this time different?
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75 sats \ 19 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
I think the US have clearly issued a ban on selling us government bonds. We all know why.
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42 sats \ 18 replies \ @siggy47 27 Apr
The US has been exporting inflation and destroying other currencies for years. What leverage do they have?
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117 sats \ 12 replies \ @0xIlmari 27 Apr
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/exports-by-country
I think the US would be ready to wage another trade war to protect their fiat hegemony.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr freebie
Waging war makes the economy go around.
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0 sats \ 10 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
We are already in the midst. The Europeans now joining the club
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21 sats \ 9 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr
Production ramps up, people get behind the war machine.
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0 sats \ 8 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
but the problem is the disintegration of international trade, which is leading to massive productivity losses. too much capital is being destroyed, and the goods and services that people need are not being produced in sufficient quantities. the damage is very multifaceted, not least at the geopolitical level, where we are now also seeing the world breaking up into two blocs.
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42 sats \ 7 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr
One block always wins though. You think the world will actually take chinas side? No one wants to see that happen, and no one will let it happen.
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54 sats \ 3 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
Geopolitical power. Imagine how fast they could crash the japanese bond market by one or two rate hikes more
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 27 Apr
True, but that was the case last year around the time when the regional banks were failing, and I believe the BOJ intervened right in the middle of the mess.
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54 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
I think if we now add the ECB into the puzzle, that the major central banks are trying to coordinate to get out of this mess. so I think it will go back and forth. but the Americans will of course hold the geopolitical leverage
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr
They can only hold that postion if they are infallible. Everyones perception of the us dollar is changing.
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hamstr 27 Apr
Exactly! They do not have jurisdiction. Though knives are slowly turning against US, or maybe just my imagination?
I find it impossible for a nation to fund proxy wars, impose censorship, fund failing banks etc. all while telling Americans that boys can become women and vice versa. The cracks are surely there.
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hamstr 27 Apr
they can't
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42 sats \ 11 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Apr
Went to Japan and I loved it but its miracle is coming to an end. While yes they are dealing with yen breaking now that had decades of this fake prosperity with little to no consequences.
Maybe Japan needs to come back to reality. Pay it’s debts and stop living off the printer while USA subsidizes its lifestyle
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42 sats \ 10 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr
Woah, hit the brakes. If you really think the usa is subsidizing its lifestyle, think of what Japan can do to the usa if it cuts them off?
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42 sats \ 9 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Apr
Japan is an island they would starve without food imports. Read your history about WWII the reason why Japan was so ruthless in Korea and China was because they needed resources.
And of course USA does Japan doesn’t spend trillions on defense. If USA was to leave all their bases today Japan would be of risk of take over just like Taiwan
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42 sats \ 8 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr freebie
Just because it is an island doesnt mean it cant sustain itself. The reason why usa spends so much money there is because it is to their advantage to have a base in asia. Its not charity lol
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42 sats \ 7 replies \ @BlokchainB 27 Apr
Japan has no oil and they need oil. No oil no self sufficiency. It really is that easy.
Yeah but Japan benefits tremendously from USA presence. If they had to defend their own territory it would be a huge economic drain on their limited resources
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50 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
Reminds a bit (only a shadow of a bit) of the embargo in ww2
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63 sats \ 1 reply \ @BlokchainB 27 Apr
Some argue the bomb was unnecessary. Many Japanese civilians were starving to death due to the war.
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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 27 Apr
A hot topic. Like Dresden...
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63 sats \ 3 replies \ @Satosora 28 Apr
Its easy to look back on history. Actually, Japan has many resourses that it doesnt want to mine. You make it seem like war is happening in Japan all the time. The base in okinawa barely does anything...lol
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42 sats \ 2 replies \ @BlokchainB 28 Apr
No oil
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satosora 28 Apr
You seem to be under the impression that oil is scarce. Russia will never stop selling it to whoever wants it. If they really need to, they can just start whaling again to get oil. Lol
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52 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xIlmari 27 Apr
The central bank's only option is therefore to sell US government bonds and use the proceeds to exchange dollars for yen.
Until they run out of bonds to sell.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko 27 Apr
That's going to be a looong "until". Japan bought an absurd amount of us gov bonds over the last 3 decades.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @riberet19 27 Apr
Japan is the new Zimbabwe
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52 sats \ 0 replies \ @Satosora 27 Apr
It wont get that bad.
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