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75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Voldemort 23 Apr \ on: NBA GOAT Debate Thought Experiment Stacker_Sports
I think the shooters win a pickup game due to team chemistry and the matchup. Not sure about a series, but I think they end up winning that as well.
Gut Reaction to the GOATs:
I don't deny Lebron's greatness, but he certainly plays better with a certain team around him. Think of Kevin Love's career. His last year in MN he averaged 26 and 12.5, another year he average 25 and 13. His first year in CLE he averaged 16 and 10. His shot attempts decreased by 33%. Part of that is because he was no longer the best player on team, but I think a bigger part is because Lebron plays best when he can drive and kick. With the GOAT lineup, Lebron would have significantly less room in the paint, not only because Kareem and Duncan aren't 3 pt shooters, but neither are MJ and Magic.
The GOATs would have to win by dominating them defensively and on the boards, but Lebron and Magic would be best suited to play up tempo given the team dynamics (I think Jordan can play either style because of his midrange game). Basically Duncan and Kareem grabbing boards and getting a quick outlet. However, up tempo games generally favor shooting teams and high scoring teams.
On the other hand, Duncan and Kareem would be better playing a low tempo game. Kareem did fine playing up tempo with LA, of course, but he'd be licking his chops to get the ball on the block. Likewise for Duncan.
If I was the GOATs coach I would try to keep the scoring under 90. Make it super slow and physical to throw the shooters off their rhythm. On offense I'd basically want Magic setting up Lebron and MJ as much as possible with Kareem/Duncan gobbling up the board.s
To summarize - I don't think the make-up of the GOATs maximizes the talent on the team. Clogged lane suppresses Lebron a bit. Magic and Lebron are a bit redundant in a half court offense since they both play with the ball. Their biggest mismatches are Kareem/Duncan down low, but a zone defense could potentially mitigate some of that.
Gut Reaction to the Shooters:
I think Nash and Steph are getting to the rim whenever they want. If anyone comes to help you're kicking it to one of three 3-point contest winners and Durant (Nash, Bird, Dirk, Curry all won so it doesn't matter if it is curry or nash getting to the rim). Basically you've got 5 players who have all shot over 40% from three at some point in their career. Playing help defense would be a nightmare. Playing zone would be impossible.
The shooters would try to run to mitigate their weakness at the big positions. It would also potentially tire Duncan and Kareem out.
If I was the shooter's coach, I'd have Nash/Curry push the tempo as much as possible. In the half court I'd have Curry constantly moving (not dissimilar to what he does now or what Rip Hamilton did for the Pistons). Nash would be looking to get to the rim to either score or kick it. My goal would be to get to 120 FGA, with a large portion being threes.
If they need to slow it down, I give it to whoever has the hot hand between Dirk, Bird, or Durant and let them go to work. Again help defense is not possible.
On defense, I probably try to do some sort of zone. No offense to Magic, but I am letting him shoot all day. If we lose one game because of that, I am okay with it. But we are not losing a series because Magic out shout us.
Overall:
All that said - it is entirely possible Lebron and MJ just trade off dominating games. Personally, I think Dirk, Bird, Durant, and Curry can take over games as well (Nash can in different ways but his style of play relies more on others), but not to the level of Lebron/MJ.
In a series, I think it comes down to who gets worn down first. Can the GOATs be physical enough to wear down the shooters or will the shooters constant running wear down the GOATs? It is also exceptionally discouraging to have opponents constantly hit threes on you.