100 sats \ 3 replies \ @Brunswick 30 Jul 2022 \ on: A realistic fair value of Bitcoin bitcoin
Keep the FUD coming, I want some cheap bitcoin!
Also, it's the top 1% that will own 95% of all the bitcoin, and that top 1% will be mainly Americans, Europeans and Japanese. There will still be plenty to go around to the rest of the world because of fractionalization. You can't make calculations making any assumptions about equal distribution of anything. If that were even remotely true, bitcoin would be worth the same as seawater or air, nothing. The purpose of a money is to account for the unequal distribution of value.
"Whales currently hold 24% of the supply.
Holdings as at 1st Jan of past years:
2021 - 27%
2020 - 27%
2019 - 29%
2018 - 32%
2017 - 39%
2016 - 44%
2015 - 46%
2014 - 48%
2013 - 52%
2012 - 54%
Excludes Satoshi's coins (assumed lost), exchanges, ETFs, and public companies.
(Exchanges, ETFs and public company holdings are excluded as their BTC are owned by a multitude of individuals/shareholders.)"
In fact bitcoin is diffusing rather than aggregating. Because, in part, in a Proof of Work system, greater holdings don't generate greater holdings. The other part is the capped supply.
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FUD? equal distribution?
My guy, you haven't read the post. have you?
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I agree your approach gives a simpler way to calculate, it's your 10% / 50% split I think is way off. Your assumption that a hard money world will work completely differently than a fiat world is a good one, but it could go either direction. Given we know fiat encourages spending, we can assume hard money encourages saving. All things equal, this seems logical, but this is a notion from an inflationary world (even with gold) and hard money could turn everything upside down multiple times.
Regardless my original intent stands, to underestimate the value if bitcoin is adding Uncertainty compared to "HODL Bank" which is on a 1sat=1BigLieMoney trajectory.
When I say more FUD in a bear market is good, I mean it. It's not a slight against you.
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