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0 sats \ 5 replies \ @Undisciplined 21 Apr \ on: The Halving came and went and it was life as per normal for me bitcoin_beginners
Since I believe the Efficient Markets Hypothesis is a good approximation of economic reality, I'm inclined towards downplaying the role of highly predictable events.
I did enjoy the halving, though, as a sort of Bitcoin New Years.
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It does it very poorly, based on expectations. My opinion was just that nothing should happen price-wise at the halving, because it would have happened in advance of the halving.
There will be some effects of the halving, but they'll play out as people realize there were things they didn't appreciate about it.
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Agree with that but as we saw with the etfs. The event occurring was priced in but the consensus did not have them buying 275k coins in the first 3 months so that was most certainly not priced in. Just like the event of the halving is priced in but the effect of issuance being cut in half cannot be priced in because we don't know what market participants will do.
If the markets were truly efficient Bitcoin's USD price would be in the millions right now. We know what issuance will look like for the next 116 years, no need to guess, and we can assert that the USD will devalue at a rate greater than new supply will be issued. Compound that variance over 116 years and you get a lot of fiat price increase just based on the USD losing value.
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It's definitely quite a tension in my mind, balancing EMH and my personal valuation of Bitcoin. What I'd say is that it's going to be new information that moves markets. The tricky part of that is trying to grapple with how poorly understood Bitcoin is by the public.
"New information" might be stuff we've all known for a while, but most people don't.