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NBA GOAT Debate Thought Experiment

2475 sats \ 30 comments \ @Undisciplined 21 Apr Stacker_Sports

I'm curious who stackers would pick in the following hypothetical matchup:

The GOATs

Magic
Jordan
Lebron
Duncan
Kareem

vs.

The Shooters

Nash
Steph
Bird
Durant
Dirk

If you're like me, you think The Shooters would have a really strong chance of winning a series against The GOATs. Does that imply that we're thinking about the GOAT wrong?

Shoutout to @Voldemort for making me think about Dirk and how shooting is still possibly an undervalued skill.

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117 sats \ 8 replies \ @TNStacker 21 Apr freebie

Wow. Part of me just wants to go ahead and say the first group has too many big guys and that the shooters would blow em out. However, I think that first group would put up some pretty awesome defense, so I'm going to go ahead and go with GOATS.

81 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

When I imagine how these games would go, I think The GOATS would dominate in transition, but lose in the half-court.

As I mentioned to @grayruby, I also think The GOATs would win. What's interesting to me is that based on how all these guys are ranked all-time, there should be no doubt whatsoever about who wins these games: one team has the best player ever at each position, after all.

86 sats \ 4 replies \ @Voldemort 23 Apr

When I imagine how these games would go, I think The GOATS would dominate in transition, but lose in the half-court.

I had the exact opposite thought!

Having Nash and Curry lead an up tempo attack with that squad would be deadly. Duncan/Kareem are not keeping up with Durant/Dirk. I don't even think MJ/Magic can keep up with Nash and Curry, TBH. Meanwhile in a half court game you've got Duncan and Kareem dominating the offensive glass. The second chance points would heavily favor the GOATs.

65 sats \ 1 reply \ @TNStacker 23 Apr

MJ/Magic would beat Curry/Nash to death over a series. 🤣🤣🤣

OG Rules, though!

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 23 Apr

I think it would probably be Lebron, rather than Magic, but that would still be the strategy.

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 23 Apr

I see what you're getting at. I was thinking that the spacing and off-ball movement would give the Shooters the superior halfcourt offense, while the GOATs would use their defense to start tons of transition opportunities. Plus, Jordan and Lebron would just be dunking all over whoever was trying to play transition defense.

38 sats \ 0 replies \ @Voldemort 24 Apr

That is a good point too. I could be off. Long rebounds lead to fast breaks and Lebron/MJ aren't getting stopped in transition by anyone on the shooters. If it is not a long rebound you let MJ/Lebron run the court, Duncan/Kareem give an outlet to the same effect.

61 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 21 Apr

I like this line of thinking with transition and half court. I wasn't really thinking about that. I think you are right so I again go back to rebounding. Shooters will always create offense in the half court because they can all shoot the lights out and don't need to be open. GOATs want to run and get to the basket.

Is there no online simulator we can load these players into and see what happens?

21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

At the risk of getting you addicted to another simulator: https://play.basketball-gm.com/

88 sats \ 5 replies \ @grayruby 21 Apr

On another note. Did you see those Minneapolis Lakers? (not those fake LA ones that crapped the bed in the second half)

I am coming around to the idea that @siggy47 has been slow playing us in regards to NBA. We may come to find out that he is actually a Knicks season ticket holder and he sits courtside with Spike Lee.

98 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

We may find out that he is Spike Lee.

I caught some of each game yesterday. I still don't know exactly what to make of the Minneapolis Lakers, because I'm so bearish on the Suns.

67 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 21 Apr

Maybe he is Spike's lawyer.

100 sats \ 2 replies \ @siggy47 21 Apr

My ignorance is genuine. The last time I saw Spike Lee (and Woody Allen) at MSG I needed binoculars to spot them. Nosebleed seats.

58 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 21 Apr

I thought you were living the pleb life but I began to get skeptical when you spoke about travelling to your lake house in Tuscany.

4 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 21 Apr

Yes, I was in Tuscany, but I was staying at the Italian equivalent of a Motel 6.

75 sats \ 0 replies \ @Voldemort 23 Apr

I think the shooters win a pickup game due to team chemistry and the matchup. Not sure about a series, but I think they end up winning that as well.

Gut Reaction to the GOATs:

I don't deny Lebron's greatness, but he certainly plays better with a certain team around him. Think of Kevin Love's career. His last year in MN he averaged 26 and 12.5, another year he average 25 and 13. His first year in CLE he averaged 16 and 10. His shot attempts decreased by 33%. Part of that is because he was no longer the best player on team, but I think a bigger part is because Lebron plays best when he can drive and kick. With the GOAT lineup, Lebron would have significantly less room in the paint, not only because Kareem and Duncan aren't 3 pt shooters, but neither are MJ and Magic.

The GOATs would have to win by dominating them defensively and on the boards, but Lebron and Magic would be best suited to play up tempo given the team dynamics (I think Jordan can play either style because of his midrange game). Basically Duncan and Kareem grabbing boards and getting a quick outlet. However, up tempo games generally favor shooting teams and high scoring teams.

On the other hand, Duncan and Kareem would be better playing a low tempo game. Kareem did fine playing up tempo with LA, of course, but he'd be licking his chops to get the ball on the block. Likewise for Duncan.

If I was the GOATs coach I would try to keep the scoring under 90. Make it super slow and physical to throw the shooters off their rhythm. On offense I'd basically want Magic setting up Lebron and MJ as much as possible with Kareem/Duncan gobbling up the board.s

To summarize - I don't think the make-up of the GOATs maximizes the talent on the team. Clogged lane suppresses Lebron a bit. Magic and Lebron are a bit redundant in a half court offense since they both play with the ball. Their biggest mismatches are Kareem/Duncan down low, but a zone defense could potentially mitigate some of that.

Gut Reaction to the Shooters:

I think Nash and Steph are getting to the rim whenever they want. If anyone comes to help you're kicking it to one of three 3-point contest winners and Durant (Nash, Bird, Dirk, Curry all won so it doesn't matter if it is curry or nash getting to the rim). Basically you've got 5 players who have all shot over 40% from three at some point in their career. Playing help defense would be a nightmare. Playing zone would be impossible.

The shooters would try to run to mitigate their weakness at the big positions. It would also potentially tire Duncan and Kareem out.

If I was the shooter's coach, I'd have Nash/Curry push the tempo as much as possible. In the half court I'd have Curry constantly moving (not dissimilar to what he does now or what Rip Hamilton did for the Pistons). Nash would be looking to get to the rim to either score or kick it. My goal would be to get to 120 FGA, with a large portion being threes.

If they need to slow it down, I give it to whoever has the hot hand between Dirk, Bird, or Durant and let them go to work. Again help defense is not possible.

On defense, I probably try to do some sort of zone. No offense to Magic, but I am letting him shoot all day. If we lose one game because of that, I am okay with it. But we are not losing a series because Magic out shout us.

Overall:

All that said - it is entirely possible Lebron and MJ just trade off dominating games. Personally, I think Dirk, Bird, Durant, and Curry can take over games as well (Nash can in different ways but his style of play relies more on others), but not to the level of Lebron/MJ.

In a series, I think it comes down to who gets worn down first. Can the GOATs be physical enough to wear down the shooters or will the shooters constant running wear down the GOATs? It is also exceptionally discouraging to have opponents constantly hit threes on you.

65 sats \ 2 replies \ @Voldemort 23 Apr

Does that imply that we're thinking about the GOAT wrong?

I forgot to answer this part. I don't think so.

I think there are other teams I could build with fewer GOATs that would beat the shooters more easily/consistently. Or even beat the GOATs more easily.

This is difficult to measure, but for my money, the GOAT is the player I want on my team to win me a game or a series. Or in other words - who would I never bet against while they were playing?

I would never bet against MJ. Kobe is up there, Lebron is up there, Bird is up there, but there are times I would have bet against all of them.

100 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 23 Apr

That's a good way to put it. I still think it's telling that a team literally made up of the GOAT at each position might lose to a team specifically made up of just the best shooter at each position.

I think you're right, though, that this tells us a lot about what the GOATs are. They're more like the highest ceiling raisers or the guys who the best teams can be built around.

For instance, if you replace any of the Shooters with the GOAT from the same position, the resulting team is probably quite a bit better.

17 sats \ 0 replies \ @Voldemort 24 Apr

Yes, totally.

I think 2016 was an excellent example of this. Curry and Thompson are arguably the best three point shooters of all time and they had Durant. A team of excellent shooters had the best record of all time at 73-9. All that fire power still couldn't take down Lebron when he decided to take over the series.

65 sats \ 1 reply \ @Voldemort 23 Apr

Random thought:

Does changing the shooters lineup to Dirk at the 4 and KAT at the 5 change your thoughts at all? KAT is not a super physical guy, but he'd fare better against Kareem on Defense and has still won a 3pt contest.

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 23 Apr

There's no world in which I'd rather have KAT than KD or Steph or Nash.

61 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 21 Apr freebie

With all due respect to Durant and Dirk. I don't think they are going to be able to rebound with Kareem and Duncan in the paint so I will take the GOATs. I think the variance in rebounding will outweigh the plus shooting and three point shooting of the Shooters. They are still going to miss sometimes and the GOATs get a lot of easy put back opportunities with Kareem and Duncan in the paint.

Again with all due respect, I also don't think Nash and Steph are big enough to guard Jordan, Magic, Lebron so maybe Bird, Durant and Dirk end up in foul trouble early helping the smaller guys.

So my takeaway is while we undervalued shooting. Maybe we also undervalued D and rebounding.

71 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

Bird's the best rebounder on The Shooters, but your point stands. One thing we've learned in the 3-point era, though, is that long shots create long rebounds. That devalues the kinds of bigs who gobble up misses around the basket.

I also think The GOATs would probably win, but based on how these guys are ranked all-time, it shouldn't even be close. The GOATs are generally considered to be the best players at each position, while The Shooters are just the best at one skill at each position (Obviously, those specific players are also good at other stuff too).

61 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 21 Apr

I do think the shooters will do ok on the offensive glass with some long rebounds gobbled up by their athleticism but I think they will have a hard time on the defensive glass. I see Kareem and Duncan just gobbling up short rebounds for easy put backs when the GOATs miss and I think the GOATs get to the basket easier and get tons of free throws especially if the game is called the way it is now.

That being said if the game was played 10 times, I do think the shooters win a few. A couple guys will get hot shooting 3s and they will score in bunches and take a commanding lead.

71 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

I think converting defense into offense would be the decisive element for The GOATs. All of them were elite transition players and all but Magic were elite defenders.

I hadn't thought about free throws. Yeah, one team is full of great foul drawers and they're going up against pretty average defenders.

40 sats \ 1 reply \ @gnilma 21 Apr

GOATs all day any day. The shooters will just get locked down defensively and get out rebounded by a landslide.

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 21 Apr

The shooters will just get locked down defensively

I doubt it. I don't recall those guys getting locked down by the GOATs in their various real head-to-heads.

Dirk's had lots of great games against Duncan. KD and Steph have scored plenty vs Lebron. Obviously, Bird got the best of Magic and Kareem.

They're great defenders, but they aren't the kind of defenders who excel at chasing off-ball guys all around the court. Plus, great offense beats great defense.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 21 Apr

The shooters will have the toughest time inside court, Goats are bigger in everything, in shape and skills both.