It's funny how sometimes you can see someone else write something very close to your own view, but it actually reduces your confidence in the position.

I think that catastrophe spiral probably has many off-ramps that are being overlooked. Things don't really go the way we expect, for very long, all that often.

That said, yeah, Israel's creating a really big mess here. The guy I recommend most highly on foreign policy stuff is (the great) Scott Horton. I think he sees the situation pretty similarly to Kulak.