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WW3, maybe.www.anarchonomicon.com/p/emergency-quicktake-israel-is-starting

3439 sats \ 32 comments \ @elvismercury 19 Apr mostly_harmless

Not clear where to put this -- no "news" or "current events" territory any more.

I don't really know what to make of all this -- not only is it not in my wheelhouse, it's sort of in my anti-wheelhouse. Whatever your thoughts on the general calibre of different types of media and reportage, the absolute trough of reliability has got to be anything to do w/ Israel vs Arabic World and all the culture-warring that spirals off from it like a toxic oil spill. Usually, all of it is best avoided.

With that giant disclaimer, Kulak has written a bunch of stuff before, on proximate topics, that has struck me as deeply informed and insightful, even if sometimes she gets me stirred up and enraged. So I dunno. Worthy of your attention, probably. She's a serious and thoughtful person, worth a Twitter follow if you're into that.

I'd be interested in informed perspectives / reactions.

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3821 sats \ 3 replies \ @freetx 19 Apr

About 10 years ago, I realized that the single biggest successful psyop ever perpetuated was the idea that we should each have an opinion on such matters.

The military-industrial / political complex needs you to have an opinion, because then you can be molded. Its better for them that you take the "wrong" side then to take no side. By you taking the "wrong side" you become something that can be rallied around to motivate the opposition voting base.

What the money laundering complex can't deal with is when you have no opinion on such matters.

Take the shrug-pill.

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

I very purposefully try not to have takes on anything that I'm not positioned to have a take on, opinions being like assholes, etc. But some things are very big and I feel like I should know what's in play as a general understand-the-state-of-reality principle.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @freetx 19 Apr

Oh yes, WW3 (if it would happen) would affect all of us.

Nothing wrong at all knowing about things going on in the world. In reality I was pretty much reminding myself to not drug into taking sides.

13 sats \ 0 replies \ @02bcd3eeb0 19 Apr

Having no opinion is not enough, you need to also remove their ability to steal the funds of people who are agnostic/apathetic.

158 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 19 Apr

I am personally much more concerned about an Israel vs Iran conflict spilling over to the rest of the world than I was about Russia vs Ukraine.

70 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

Not true for me, but I've proven to be quite wrong on Ukraine vs Russia, so my opinion has been proved worthless.

I'm kind of in the learned helplessness stage, but wish I could get out of it.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 19 Apr

Me too

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Recongraves 19 Apr

Shutting down the waterway not allowing oil tankers to cross through.. unlikely but now looks more likely than what it did

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nym 19 Apr

That is definitely going to happen.

216 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 19 Apr

It's funny how sometimes you can see someone else write something very close to your own view, but it actually reduces your confidence in the position.

I think that catastrophe spiral probably has many off-ramps that are being overlooked. Things don't really go the way we expect, for very long, all that often.

That said, yeah, Israel's creating a really big mess here. The guy I recommend most highly on foreign policy stuff is (the great) Scott Horton. I think he sees the situation pretty similarly to Kulak.

40 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

Things don't really go the way we expect, for very long, all that often.

Good point. Hope it remains true here as in other circumstances.

359 sats \ 0 replies \ @tomlaies 19 Apr

I do know what to make of this:

It's overly pessimistic and too much doom and gloom. It already begins in the premise:

Israel cannot survive unless Iran is destroyed now. There’s basically no scenario where the tit for tat won’t escalate into an unending front of [...]

That's an oversimplified assessment. Of course any analysis that takes catastrophe as a premise has doomerism as the extrapolation.

I could pick this text apart quote by quote now and maybe I should. But long story short it's full of these oversimplified then->then->then chains that take the worst possible chain of events as the most likely without any evidence/arguments whatsoever.

96 sats \ 1 reply \ @BTC_DCAGUY_SIIM 19 Apr

Nice read

“And They just couldn’t help themselves adding a 3rd and forth front to this losing war.. At every point they’ve chosen not only to retaliate and escalate, but to do so 3 steps up the escalation ladder.

Going ALL-IN every round is a poker strategy that gets lots of players to fold and makes money for a few rounds… until eventually someone calls your bluff and suddenly your all in on a pair of 8s.”

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

I liked that line too, since that is my own inept poker strategy, and the outcome is always exactly as she describes.

27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 19 Apr

Yes you're right it's worthy of attention. Thanks.

Not clear where to put this -- no "news" or "current events" territory any more.

~oracle can be used as an alternative to news, I suppose.

55 sats \ 2 replies \ @DEADBEEF 19 Apr

World leaders seem hungry for war. First there was Ukraine and now Israel. This all just feels like a giant money laundering scheme by the military industrial complex that is being propped up by politicians they have bought and paid for. Plus there is the added bonus of propping up the US GDP with the constant manufacturing of weapons.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @blocktock 20 Apr

World leaders seem hungry for war.

It's the only way they can seek to get out of the debt trap. A ridiculous but final way for all countries to agree on the amount of debt that can be written-off (after printing). And for the populace to accept decreased living standards. Everything was pinned on Germany last time out. Feels like it may be Russia/China this time.

War is just a lie machine. It's never about them or us. Just debt and lies.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @PRA3S3NT1A 19 Apr

There is the point, agree

9 sats \ 4 replies \ @Malachi17 19 Apr

This is actually Israel finishing WWII--or better put God finishing it.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @dynamic_equilibrium 19 Apr

This is actually still WWI which never ended.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Malachi17 19 Apr

Sure. The plan at that point was three wars, although everyone thought otherwise and called it "The Great War".

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Himmelstoss 21 Apr

can you elaborate on that?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Malachi17 21 Apr

https://www.news24.com/news24/albert-pike-the-3-world-wars-20130628

5 sats \ 1 reply \ @Bell_curve 19 Apr

Iran is not Arabic. In fact Arabic nations hate Iran with a couple exceptions

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

That's true. I was overly-specific.

3 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 19 Apr

What's this for a weird assessment?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 20 Apr

We have seen pretty unique alliances emerge with this Israel/Iran attack increase. I never imagined Saudi joining in protecting Israel so that was pretty big to see.

With Ukraine getting US funding I expect to see those front lines freeze up again followed up by someone trying a rapid push.

To me the key places are going to be Lebanon and the Crimean bridge. Those two places have the possibility of kicking off some crazy stuff

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 19 Apr

I think comment #511496 wins.

Outside of geopolitics viewed through corporate / state-corporate mediums that ask their nations to morally condemn or justify certain wackos, you've just got regular people, who don't care for of any particular ideological, political or religious leaning.

Condemning actions of a government is lauding another's. Truth is they're both flawed. So why take a position.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @fabohax 19 Apr

W3D Economy looks a lot of enjoyable

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @quark 19 Apr

I am worried, but for now I think if the US does not want WWIII, it won't happen. The US is more worried about China and current price of oil. However, we have seen world wars start with smaller issues :(

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @zuspotirko 19 Apr

Nice argument, however:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023429c6-7a12-43ff-a56f-57f15e260f51_954x542.jpeg

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury OP 19 Apr

Something happened in Ukraine a couple years ago; something happened on Oct 7 and after that. Unless you're referring to some more particular kind of stuff that doesn't happen?