In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept its projections for global economic growth largely unchanged. However, it anticipates a slight moderation in global trade growth and a more restrained fiscal policy, which may counterbalance the easing monetary policies in advanced economies. The IMF forecasts a 3.2 percent increase in the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024, up from its previous forecast of 3.1 percent in January. It maintains an unchanged growth expectation of 3.2 percent for 2025.

Short-Term Stability Risks Diminish, but Caution Persists

According to the IMF's latest Financial Stability Report, short-term risks to the stability of the global financial system have diminished since autumn 2023. However, the IMF highlights notable stability risks lingering on the "last mile" of inflation decline towards target levels. Of particular concern is the commercial real estate sector, where certain countries with significant exposure to commercial real estate loans may face heightened vulnerabilities. Despite banks appearing well-positioned to absorb these losses overall, some countries may bear a heavier burden due to their banks holding substantial amounts of commercial real estate loans, the IMF warns.