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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @nerd2ninja 28 Jul 2022
In Ray Dalio's "The Changing World Order" he illustrates how another empire comes to replace the previous. There's large speculation that the new Order as it were may be what is commonly viewed as the rising empire of China, but lets look at some principles which discuss what causes a new empire to rise and the old to fall in the first place:
I'm just going to reference this summary here: https://auresnotes.com/summary-the-changing-world-order-ray-dalio/
*A country rises when it encounters favorable economic and social conditions that enable it to develop its economy and military.
China is the largest exporter of the world, so it must be on the rise right? Here I will show that they are no longer on the rise.
*It directs the world order when it becomes more powerful than all the other countries (usually demonstrated by winning a war).
Look, this could still happen, but allow me to talk about another war that will have a greater impact than what is commonly understood as war.
*Once the country peaks, the population gets lazy and borrows too much money.
So now I point to the video in this post. It looks like while China did rise, it did not take the #1 spot, and it now seems to be waning
*The country loses its economic and military edge. It becomes decadent and decays.
I think we are at the beginning phase of this part.
*The shift from one world order to another happens when a new rising power
becomes stronger than the decaying one.
There is another. Yes I keep teasing it but we have to get through this first.
*The decaying power often engages and loses a war against the rising power.
What is the war that China is losing? Why, the same war that the US is losing and every other country for that matter. The war against Bitcoin.
Yes, I believe that Bitcoin will be the new entity which directs the world order, and so did the Cypher Punks who created it.
*The whole cycle starts again.
The only question we have left, is will future generations abandon the principals which Bitcoin was designed for? Will they fork into an unrecognizable mess of a money? Or is the technology powerful enough to hold things together in spite of human tendency. Only time will tell, but it is possible and perhaps even likely.
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15 sats \ 2 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 28 Jul 2022
I know about Ray Dalios book. It's a very interesting thought but there is no scientific proof for his claims whatsoever. (Reminds me of "Guns, Germs and Steel": very logical sounding argumentation and fascinating thoughts - but where is the statistical proof my dude?)
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @nerd2ninja 28 Jul 2022
Well of course there's no scientific proof. The scientific process requires repeatable experimentation under consistent conditions. You can't test an economy, no less a country repeatable with no changes to culture or anything more than a single time. This is why economics in general is considered as soft science and why arguments are so intense.
All it even can ever be is conjecture, but the reason its the best conjecture we have, is that it is conjecture based on historical tendencies, which we know that all historical instances are not of the same circumstances, cultures, or technologies.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 28 Jul 2022
Repeatable might be an issue, that's true. But when one can claim the same numbers for pre-columbian americas, some african tribes and medival south-east india it would be much more convincing that it a constant about humanity.
IIrc Ray Dalio claims empires last 250 years. Why not 150 or 350? Is this roughly true for Quing China? Is it roughly true for for Cahokia? Or is it only for Dutch Empire, British Empire and Colonial Spain? A sample size of <10 is not a good indicator period - let alone if pre-modern age is even applicable at all.
I would be much more convinced if there was at least a large statistical analysis which he could have done with Wikipedia and Excel.
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