I'm sure a lot of people have bought Bitcoin with leverage, debt, and more so than most assets because yolo. It makes sense to de-leverage during times of uncertainty, because you'd be better off having less risk overall.

Bitcoin's price would probably fall even farther if it weren't also an asset that can make sense during times of uncertainty.

This is a great point and I'm sure it happens.

The answer is likely some version of "We're still very early." There are more people who view bitcoin as a risky speculative asset and dump it when they flee to safety.

How many people truly understand bitcoin as perfect money, or as perfect collateral today? Less than 1% for sure. Perhaps even 0.1%. So the other 99% have more weight for now.

I do believe there will come a time, where bitcoin is no longer viewed as ‘risk on’ by market forces, but the opposite. We’re not there yet sadly. Many companies still clamour for dollars during times of stress, and will sell anything else in their portfolio to get hold of them. That will continue until it loses more credibility with more people.

Price is probably irrelevant, to a certain extent, if we’re talking about a 30/-30% swing. When it’s a case of taking your wealth with you or not. For that reason, I agree with you that it is the perfect SoV during conflict… but don’t expect such volatility to disappear.

Should everything gap-down, with bitcoin holding steady or accruing value… that is the biggest advertising banner you could ever dream up or place in people’s eyeballs. At that point, perhaps someone could say the real road to hyperbitcoinisation is imminent.

The market still isn’t 100% confident that bitcoin is a safe haven. Thus any time of fear dollar liquidity is king. If this would of happened on a Monday I think stocks would have been down sharply as well

Not everyone understands Bitcoin as well as you do, that’s why it still drops during a crisis.

Bitcoin is a free market of participants, not a formulaic if x then y. The reason you hold Bitcoin is not the reason everyone else holds Bitcoin. They will buy it and sell it whenever they would like to do so for reasons that they agree with.

The confusion comes from the illusion that Bitcoin holders on X, Nostr, and other social media create that their narrative is the narrative of the entire market, when in fact it represent a minuscule percent of the market participants.

Lastly, no. It’s not nation states selling to fund an army. Armies are built and funded over years to decades, with government budgets and massive strategic process. Not on a whim of events on the ground.

Bitcoin's price doesn't get hit due to war but because of 'leveraged positions getting liquidated in times of uncertainty' mostly because people refrain from buying and sellers go on selling as usual.

I feel the current world affairs is definitely driving the price past 100k so war does play a huge role in BTC

Probably still a few gold coins.

Image from https://www.usmilitariaforum.com/forums/index.php?/topic/301016-escape-evasion-life-barter-kit/

The fact that it is getting dumped shows how early we are imo.

Sure it never feels great when the price drops, but Bitcoin does not guarantee the market price. The market does.

And if this gets dump at wartime news at such magnitude, honestly I am going to get quite a bit more SATs soon, we have a long way to go before its true value (that we know) is being recognised.

Think of Ukrainian issues

Not much of a drop, it's still $64k!!!

TRUE! It is still too early to know how bitcoin behaves during the war, but keeping the logic in mind that no one can take your bitcoin from you if you do it right. And listening to stories like those of your ancestors. There is no doubt that bitcoin is the best option for storing and transporting your wealth from one place in chaos to another where you can start again, alone or with your family, whatever the case may be!

There will always be fearful people within the ecosystem, not everyone has studied Bitcoin in depth, so this will continue to happen at any time of FUD.

The answer to your question is that this is the property that Bitcoin WILL have but doesn't completely reached yet.

It's hard for people here who spend at least the last 5 years to imagine that. But we're still early.

Different people viewing the same asset and the same issues in a different view, some people hodling Bitcoin still see it as the speculative asset and the cash as the safe haven, in times of war people want the most liquid form of money so they can buy goods and services, even pay bribes

As others have already pointed out most people don't see Bitcoin for what it really is yet.

However, there's another reason. Bitcoin is often the most liquid easy to sell asset. You can't sell real estate quickly. You can't sell stocks when the market is closed. So for people that think they need cash fast they sell Bitcoin.

On the upside, it's a great time to stack.

i think they are both very good value for fiat. People respect gold, it might not make a return like btc, though. But people who buy gold want to keep it to hedge their bets, not lose their shirts. People getting btc sometimes get overzealous.

most people still think bitcoin is a tech stock

Some people panic especially with bitcoin. These are almost always investors new to bitcoin

Temporary shock then normalcy

The timing is interesting with the halving date 7 days away