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Cheers for the reply.
How many years would it take to reach 100 TB? Can we suppose storing 100 TB will be expensive that year?
I'm amenable to the argument that technological improvements will save us, but at the same time I'd rather not trust in it - although given the trouble it seems anyone is having introducing any change, I'm inclined to think we have no choice.
Luke Dashjr has since long wanted to decrease to only 300 KB. But Lightning doesn't thrive with small blocks either I hear, so I don't think he have much or any support.
That proposal makes sense to me - as a temporary measure until demand picks up. Fees will eventually be high, so that might as well be embraced now. But I appreciate that, in terms of onboarding, this reduces the number of people that will be able to get their own utxo before being priced out, and that the infrastructure for a high fee environment takes time to build.
More "annoying" than "existential" on a scale of severity I think. But I'm looking forward to your analysis.
I'd guess if it ever did become life-or-death, then the utxo set would be pruned. But like you, I don't see it ever becoming that bad. If there is an issue, maybe it's that it's not a problem that will cause shock, but will just slowly get worse with time, and so people will put up with it.
It's not my analysis, but while I was trying to answer this question I found this post: https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/a/115451
The post (with various assumptions) says 104 years until we reach the maximum amount of utxos that aren't dust.
I was hoping people already had an idea to combat this, but it seems there is no magic solution. I guess the takeaway here is that the problem is only annoying, as you said. And maybe some clever clogs will come up with something :)