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The CPI reading just came in hotter than expected, and Wall Street is now thinking that rate cuts won't be coming any time soon. Bitcoin is still foolishly seen as a risk asset, and all those normies scooping up those ETF shares may get scared, starting today. We could get a huge buying opportunity sooner than we think. I'm getting ready to scoop up some bitcoin on sale.
148 sats \ 1 reply \ @quark 10 Apr
On the other side, risks assets often crash more only after they start cutting the rates. That's when market gets scared. If they don't cut this summer, market will keep the buy the dip mentality. In my opinion of course. I think price matters a lot. Not everybody is earning in BTC and spending in BTC. If it does go down I can buy more sats.
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It's not an exact science. Who knows, but I think we have a good shot at a juicy crash.
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96 sats \ 0 replies \ @Fabs 10 Apr
Good, fuck them.
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Did you just but or missed it?
Or, was that enough dip on prices?
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I have learned from experience that this stuff takes longer to play out than I usually expect. It might also be slowed down by those who are hoping the PPI that comes out this morning doesn't confirm the runaway inflation. On the other hand, maybe Chinese capital flight into bitcoin is real, and the little dip is all we get.
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you can always ignore anything that comes after "but" :)
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👏👏👏
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It's so hard to imagine a meaningful dip from here. Don't get my hopes up.
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I don't think it's from here, but progressively it's possible, stranger things have been seen in Bitcoin.
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75 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr 10 Apr
We could get a huge buying opportunity sooner than we think. I'm getting ready to scoop up some bitcoin on sale.
have you been chatting with Paul Graham’s friend lately?
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I'm always ready to buy as soon as my fiat paycheck breaks into my shitaccount.
I only think about FED idiots as the best joke of all times.
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Daily movements are only relevant to traders. Markets often react differently than expected. It's true that buying at lows is preferable, but for long term, this becomes less important.
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Very true. Still, I wish I was paying attention in March of 2020 when the covid crash hit.
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Thank the lord.
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Possibly...
There must be a point, though, where markets recognise that higher rates are actually inflationary when the debt load is so unsustainable, and that every sign of deflation gets printed away anyway (see: 2023 bank bailouts).
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I know. I though that time would have come by now, but they still have managed to keep the balls in the air.
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I am actually kind of surprised we haven't seen more selling from etfs. It's all been GBTC. We have had a couple significant drawdowns since the launch (although nothing for Bitcoin) and etf holders haven't really been shaken out. I am curious to see what it will look like when we have one of those systemic risk events happen.
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Agreed. That's really what I am talking about. With the US stock market completely buoyed by the fed, there's a long way to drop if the balloon gets pricked.
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I DCA everyday. No need to overthink it, besides getting it off the exchange.
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Me too. I just like to have those smash buys locked and loaded.
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lol those are fun too, or setting some low limit buys!
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I'll be scooping it up forever. Doesn't matter. Everything is good for Bitcoin because Bitcoin is truth.
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Exactly, knowing Bitcoin's background and that it has not yet stopped being classified as a risk asset, many will sell it in panic when things get ugly again, so we have to be smarter and have a plan to buy the dip when that happens.
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Ditto
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Nobel Prize winner (and renowned asshat) Paul Krugman yesterday, before the CPI number:
Inflation Wave ‘Broken’: Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said in a New York Times op-ed that “while there was a wave of inflation, it seems to have broken.” The downtrend is more evident if inflation is measured in the same way as it is elsewhere, the economist said. He was referring to the harmonized index of consumer prices, which does not include the owners’ equivalent rent – an “imputed cost of housing that nobody actually pays and is a lagging indicator.”
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