The following is an interesting excerpt from JP Morgan’s annual letter:
“The international rules-based order established by the Western world after World War II is clearly under attack by outside forces, somewhat weakened by its own failures and inability to keep up with the increasingly complex world.
This international order relies on a web of military alliances, trade agreements (e.g., World Trade Organization), development finance (e.g., International Monetary Fund and the World Bank) and related global tax and investment policies and diplomacy organizations (e.g., United Nations), which have evolved into a confusing and overlapping regime of policies. You can now add to it the new issues of cyber warfare, digital trade and privacy, and global taxes, among others.
It might be a good idea to convene a group of likeminded leaders to build and improve upon what already exists. The time may be right for a reimagined Bretton Woods — and by this, I mean revitalizing our global architecture.
Since too many parts of the world have been neglected, any new system has to take into account and properly address the needs of all nations, including areas of concentrated poverty.
While we hope the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East will end eventually (and, we hope, successfully from the standpoint of our allies), these other critical economic battles could possibly continue throughout our lifetime. If the Western world is slowly split apart over the next few decades, it will likely be the result of our failure to effectively address crucial global economic challenges.”
The full annual letter is worth a read, to me it represents one of the more thoughtful arguments for a future without Bitcoin playing an important role.
Homework: Imagine you are an intern at JP Morgan tasked to write about Bitcoin for this annual letter. —— A significant and overlooked risk to the international world order is a viable attempt by the BRICS nations to launch and maintain a serious competitor to the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency and primary pricing tool for oil. Although an occurrence is unlikely, it would be a strategic blunder by the West to be unprepared for it. We suggest that the central banks of the West begin accumulating Bitcoin on a slow and steady basis under the pretence that this nascent monetary asset may at some point in the future gain widespread adoption. Behind this pretence would be a warning shot to the BRICS; if you threaten the dollar by launching a BRICS currency, we will unleash a speculative bubble in Bitcoin to not only divert attention away from your currency launch but to also destabilise your own domestic currencies and simultaneously create a mechanism to underwrite the US treasury market (by selling overvalued Bitcoin to buy US treasury bonds).
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It's interesting getting a public acknowledgment from someone like him that the current monetary system is broken.
Beyond that, though, I don't see much here. There's really no suggestion of what a new system would look like.
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133 sats \ 4 replies \ @kepford 8 Apr
One of the more interesting observations I've heard over the last 10 years is that of Adam Curtis the documentary maker. He stated in one of his films that there aren't any leaders in the world that have a positive vision for the future. They all seem to be trying to use fear as the main force to compel people to trust them. In other words there is some terrible thing coming and they can stop it or will fight against it. Its all reactive and based in fear. Not in a vision or in hope.
Ever since I heard him say this I have listened for someone to come up with a positive vision for the future and the only one isn't from a person. Its from a technology/network. Bitcoin.
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I'm reading Atlas Shrugged right now which reiterates those sentiments particularly our top-down (centralised and binary) views of the world.
Put simply, people create everything in their mind first, but if we can't evolve the abstract realities we truly desire that bring about happiness, virtue and reason, then we will suffer through the consequences of our collective faulty minds (and leadership) time and time again.
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Interesting, what is that movie if you remember its name?
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I think its the power of nightmares.
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That's an interesting point.
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50 sats \ 2 replies \ @kr OP 8 Apr
yeah i agree.
and you’re right, he didn’t really lay out any specifics of how the future might unfold, but he seems to have a cohesive framework for the challenges the world is facing, and i’m assuming he thinks he can position his company well without Bitcoin.
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I imagine the current system coming unraveled has been a major topic of conversation behind the scenes for these guys.
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50 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 8 Apr
for sure, and the fact that he laid out so many of his concerns in public is even more alarming
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Instead of a new Bretton Woods, let's just call it a Bitcoin Standard.
The United States could still have a leading role in global politics by adopting Bitcoin, but on more fair terms.
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I think he might be right. Let's reconvene another Bretton Woods (in the same place I might add, that would be nice) and introduce Bitcoin as an alternative to existing system and let people decide. Then we will know which system is really broken. </end of dream> :-)
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one of the more thoughtful arguments for a future without Bitcoin playing an important role.
What do you mean?
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33 sats \ 4 replies \ @kr OP 8 Apr
AFAIK, Dimon doesn’t believe Bitcoin will play an important role in the economy, and among all the Bitcoin critics I find his views on the future most believable.
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75 sats \ 2 replies \ @quark 8 Apr
I don't listen to him. He is most probably buying bitcoin every day.
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64 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 8 Apr
he might be, but in the spirit of seeking out views that differ from your own, which Bitcoin critics would you recommend listening to instead?
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good point. it is good to seek different views. For Bitcoin I would not trust a banker view, since they see Bitcoin as the enemy. Also, many billionaires don't like Bitcoin, I don't know why. But I haven't found anyone with convincing arguments. They always seem like they have not studied Bitcoin enough. I would listen to Bitcoin developers changing opinion, or leaving the project.
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Thanks
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It’s often hard to change your own attitudes and beliefs, especially those you may have held on to for some time. But you must be open to it. When you learn something that is different from what you thought, it may affect many conclusions you have, not just one. Try not to allow yourself to become rigid or “weaponized,” where other employees or interest groups jazz you up so much that you become a weapon on their behalf. This makes it much harder to see things clearly for yourself. When people disagree with you, seek out where they may be partially right. This opens the door for a deeper understanding and avoids binary thinking.
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satosora 8 Apr
Wasnt JP morgan the one that didnt want to get into Bitcoin because of the CEO saying it was a scam and it would go down?
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Yes specially Dimon which is probably a misspelling of Diamond
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @xz 9 Apr
"We"
.. wtf?
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Since too many parts of the world have been neglected, any new system has to take into account and properly address the needs of all nations, including areas of concentrated poverty.
A Bitcoin System, the way to decentralisation in money.
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