For those that have read the book, there's a lot of parallels to draw from the Sovereign Individual as a thesis of what we're experiencing this decade.
You may or may not agree with the thesis of 'city states' in future (to fill the void that will exist from bankrupt nation states). However I am curious to hear, at what point will you decide to relocate? I see many prominent bitcoiners agree with the thesis, but who have yet to make the move or even secure second residency. Why is that?
Is it the case that people have:
- family (complicating such a move)
- location-dependent jobs
- a sense that they can continue to thrive
...where they are?
Or is the general consensus that there isn't a sufficient enough gap yet to benefit from jurisdictional arbitrage? Curious to hear at what point that changes for all you people and how you see things playing out.
For those that haven't read the book, I strongly recommend you do. Here's a taster/reminder...
...
β‘ Summaryβ‘ Summary
βWho benefits & losesβWho benefits & loses
π²End Gameπ²End Game
π€ The Size of the Prizeπ€ The Size of the Prize
Fantastic summary!!
Detailed and thought out. π
I spent the last few years shifting my life from New England to Taiwan.
Might sound odd move since Taiwan shows up as the "most dangerous place on Earth" on the front page of the Economist, and NE is considered developed. But Taiwanese society is the most functional one I know. 99.9% of all of the chips for mining ASICS are made here. It's fact that the hardest working, most punctual people in the world live in Asia.
I think the biggest barrier is cultural integration. "Digital Nomads" tend to create their own third cultures in the communities the congregate in, like Portugal, or Bali. Heck even Bitcoin Beach is a culture unto itself. Today's "March Regions" tend not to be on the adjacent borders of superpowers. They're not like the southern alps during the renaissance where, ok maybe the French are in charge, maybe the Italians are, our languages are both romance and we're all catholic. The March regions are disparate. They're deep inside foreign spheres of influence. Check out nomadlist.com.
Unless they're willing to do heavy cultural investment, most movers, even if they have the capacity for sovereignty, have to wait for that third culture to establish before they're comfortable making a move. Most people are followers.
It's a paradox in my view that the people that are most eligible for individual sovereignty still tend to stick to the cultures they're most familiar with despite the freedom to do otherwise. Europeans want to migrate to Canada π.
In my experience the most vocal sovereign individual types (looking at you free staters) tend to be the least tolerant to foreign cultural mores, nevermind adopting or integrating them into one's own life.
Why do we have to move country? I think it is better to just take care of our water, food (farming), energy (solar panel) with the main goal is surving while the big states collapse. In the future we may see the smaller states, maybe something like a lot of citadels or small villages. It is interesting to see the software for this like fedimint is being built. But I always wonder what happen if one strong state survive like China, what will happens, will they have the power to dominate the other smaller states?
On China, I have heard James Davidson (the co-author) describe that the collapse of the Soviet Union and also the Berlin Wall were very significant moments. Essentially suggesting that China in its current communist phase will not endure, not for multiple decades in this era with asymmetric defensive technology. That said, they may have strong influence for a few more years yet.
Obviously I imagine the authors did not envisage all of the other technologies that empower the state, but Bitcoin is certainly the most bullish argument in favour of freedom for Chinese & worldwide SIs.
China is pretty obviously shitting the bed demographically, and financially. They've overcommitted to authoritarianism, absolutely gutted innovation in their tech sector, and are now facing population trends that will be catastrophic. It's a question of whether their nuclear energy strategy plays out, and whether the West can get it's act together in terms of energy security. India stands for win from all this. Great demographics, unrelenting to scam green energy, and an opportunity for jurisdictional arbitrage in Asia specifically.
Agree 100% on their current trajectory, assuming they don't reverse course this decade.
I will forever now interpret sb to mean 'super bearish' China and 'super bullish' India.
My takeaway from the book was that sovereign individuals are citizens of cyberspace. Strong cryptography makes them ungovernable so unless they're being physically oppressed, they can live in a totalitarian state and still retain their freedoms online.
That is certainly one interpretation and correct.
However the book does outline what will be a bigger reaction and some fairly dramatic side effects of choosing to endure through such turmoil, where countries have such a long way to fall. Those persons who were once rich and are no longer are much more likely to strike in the name of injustice. More so than those who did not manage to participate as fully during the Industrial Age (i.e. up to now).
I wrote a dedicated article about this aspect here: I suggest to all bitcoiners to pay attention to this https://darthcoin.substack.com/p/natural-law-and-bitcoin
I hope we go back to city states. I want to live in the Venice Republic
There is little incentive to move. Several developers I know stay at home, work for BTC and don't declare anything to the authorities. They travel freely and frequently and sometimes buy vacation properties abroad for BTC (possibly converted to fiat). They exchange some of their BTC to fiat via OTC-traders and live well despite a very low official income, much to the surprise of their neighbors.
IMO this is the decade where the jurisdictional arbitrage starts to develop and play out. This winter will be telling. Wealthy people in Western Europe and the rest of the EU will face frigid temperatures without reliable power, failing governments and essentially hyperinflation. It is only a matter of time before the EU crumbles.
If ECB raises rates, southern Europe goes bankrupt. If they don't, hyperinflation confirmed.
It is only a matter of time before they wake up from their socialist delusions and look for an escape valve. The clever and lucky ones will find Bitcoin as a way to leave with their wealth. It's just a question of where they go π€
Interesting analogy. In finance arbitraging also normally means that differences get arbitraged away. This would mean that after a time there are no differences get smaller. π€π»
This ultimately also means that peoples freedom of choices get smaller. That doesn't sound like a fun future to me at all.
I think it is a good thing when people have a choices in their personal mix of services and duties as a citizen. From nothing and nothing to everything and everything and everything in between.
On your 1st point, absolutely the gaps narrow and a more level playing field develops. Not before it widens first to awaken most of us.
On freedoms becoming smaller, I would disagree. 'Governments' (city states, mini-sovereignties, communities or whichever new name they may become) should be incentivised to act in the interests of their people - like businesses treat customers today. People will gather around shared interests, not an arbitrary psuedo-nationality like we do today.
Therefore the theory is that MUCH more freedom will result not less. Given more economic resources are put outside the clutches of those demanding it and more into those that are offering a good value proposition.
It is a possibility that you're right - big tech authoritarianism could expand reach in the coming years - particularly if corrupt individuals remain at the helm of these fringe countries. However I tend to believe (along with the author that) the track-record for such authoritarianism enduring isn't so good, particularly not on such a grand scale.
I agree that this winter will be telling for Europeans, including the U.K.
Decades of terrible policy decisions, the complete opposite of what you'd expect if you wanted to prevent this likely set of circumstances.
Also surprised we have not seen stricter capital controls just yet, but perhaps they believe they can keep a lid on it with looser enforcement.
The question of where to choose, seems to be limited to the least worst options π€£ although my eyes are drawn most to Latin America at this time
I did it 8 years ago and been on the move ever since. Has it pros and cons.
Currently I see Dubai as a good place to wait out and see what countries start picking up th freedom baton. Also hope for Latam to be that region.
Good to hear! Got my eye on Latam also. With more resources Dubai would be higher up the list. Looking forward to setting up a Bitcoiner neighbourhood (beyond just meet-ups) wherever we'll be welcomed with open arms.
When my government bans ownership of Bitcoin, in all honesty.
I don't think it's too likely for me. I'm in the UK, and our gov's treatment of Bitcoin so far has been somewhere down the middle. Nothing openly hostile, but small things here and there like banning Bitcoin ATMs and Bitcoin financial products in tax sheltered accounts.
I kind of view each country's response to covid as a yardstick for how they might behave during a financial meltdown. The UK was fairly hands off throughout the whole episode. Meanwhile, I have family and friends in Italy who I'm more concerned for.
Why give up your homeland when you can fight to save it π
Fair. Depends on whether you think it is possible and worth your years
Every man has his choice. π
When you are not treated well anymore and there is a better alternative