In order to get to the bullet points you list, a government would first have to acknowledge BTC as legal tender, which seems like a huge step for most of the larger economies (including the US) at this stage. I can't reasonable see it happening in the next five years. And in the meantime, BTC's global power just grows, which will make cracking down on it harder.

But I also can't imagine them legalizing it without also having a reasonably fast payment system in place, either lightning or some new thing they come up with, and once those sats are on L2, they're a lot harder to KYC. So they could make demands (and might be able to enforce them on businesses, though I'd bet some start keeping two sets of books), but person-to-person BTC transfers could continue to happen just like they do now.