Over/Under
Let's take a break from madness and since I complained in @Turdinthepunchbowl's post about the pendulum swinging too far with gambling in sports, let me do a gambling post. Haha.
The post isn't really for gambling purposes but it is rooted in gambling as Draft Kings posted over/under win totals for all 32 NFL teams for the 2024 season yesterday and I wanted to post them and discuss.
According to DraftKings, here are the over/under win totals for every team in the upcoming NFL season:
KC: 11.5 wins
BAL: 11.5 wins
SF: 11.5 wins
BUF: 10.5 wins
CIN: 10.5 wins
DET: 10.5 wins
DAL: 10.5 wins
ATL: 10.5 wins
PHI: 10.5 wins
MIA: 10.5 wins
GB: 10.5 wins
HOU: 9.5 wins
NYJ: 9.5 wins
LAC: 8.5 wins
CHI: 8.5 wins
JAX: 8.5 wins
LAR: 8.5 wins
IND: 8.5 wins
CLE: 8.5 wins
TB: 8.5 wins
NO: 7.5 wins
PIT: 7.5 wins
SEA: 7.5 wins
WSH: 7.5 wins
LV: 6.5 wins
MIN: 6.5 wins
ARI: 6.5 wins
NYG: 6.5 wins
DEN: 5.5 wins
TEN: 5.5 wins
CAR: 4.5 wins
NE: 4.5 wins
Schedules aren't out yet but we know who the opponents of each team are. I like Baltimore in the under and Cleveland in the over. That division is so good and Lamar has not had back to back seasons without missing games so I expect he will miss a few games this season. 49ers have a really tough group of opponents next year and don't have a lot of depth so I am not sure sure about the 11.5. They should win the division but it might be a 11-6 season. That's a tough one.
Shill me your thoughts on your team's over/under and any other on the list as well.
Sats for all, GR
I think Philly might fall off a cliff this year.
Fingers crossed
They are a tough one. Also the Bears. Bears got better but who knows how Williams will play in his first year.
The Bears jumped out to me as a likely under.
I don't know what to make of them either way. Kelce will be a huge loss for them but they definitely upgraded in FA. They were a mess in the second half of last year. I could see it going either way. They could bounce back and have a great year and win the division or they could continue being the mess they were in the second half of last year and win 6 games.
NYJ 9.5 wins 😂😂😂
Guessing you are taking the under. Haha
As a Jets fan, 9.5 seems dangerous high, bordering on hubris. I just don't have that kind of faith in Rodgers, either on a skill or health level, and while the O-line looks better already, I'm not sure I buy into it yet. The defense and the Breece/Justin combo on offense will still win a bunch of games, but I've still been burnt more often than not when I allow myself optimism as a Jets fan.
(That said, I'm totally there with the NE prediction and will dance a jig if Pats fans have to go through a second sub-five-win season)
I think over 9.5 would require Rodgers to be healthy and a top 10 QB. Doesn't need to be MVP but he can't be just a guy either. Not sure I would bet on that but I hope the Jets have a good season.
49ers 15-2
Why so bearish?
I feel like a HOU over is a pretty easy move... First-year coach and both the offensive and defensive rookies of the year running it back? Plus they won 10 last year with Stroud missing 2 games (the team went 1-1). Mixon will be an interesting addition to the backfield to see if he can bounce back but I feel he's a solid addition nonetheless!
I would agree. Only a Stroud injury or sophomore slump keeps them from at least 10 wins.
The Raiders are pretty clearly better now and their schedule isn't as hard, so I don't see why they'd drop two wins from last season.
Most of the lines for the top and bottom teams look pretty good to me.
Noticed that. Thought it was a little light but I guess with the QB uncertainty and the Chargers expected to be better they aren't giving Raiders any credit.
The Chargers are cleaning house. I hope people enjoy losing money on them for the 20th year in a row.
As a 4th round rookie, on a team that was so bad it was the first to fire it's head coach, AOC won 5/10 of his starts. I don't see why anyone would expect him to only win 6/17 starts on a more talented team with a better coach.
I think people are betting they have a great coach and a great QB. Both remain to be seen. I have been disappointed with Herbert thus far in his career. A couple years ago I would have pegged him as a definite top 5 guy for the next decade but I don't know if I would even put him top 10 now.
It's interesting, I've seen him twice a year (at least) for his whole career and I still don't have a great feel for why he's not more successful. He's clearly super talented, but Raider Nation's never too concerned about facing off against him.
Maybe it was just terrible coaching, which they clearly had. I think they'll be good in 2025, but this year they'll be learning a new system and rebuilding a lot of the roster.
Harbaugh will definitely have a better running game than Staley did so maybe that will help him.
Better scheme, sure, but they lost their star running back (I think).
Yes Ekler is with the Commanders now. I am sure they will be drafting a RB.