My employer is deeply tied to the commercial real estate market. When that market crashes, I am guaranteed to be laid off. I've been expecting it for a few years, but it is for sure going to happen this year or next. It mostly depends on Federal policies and the timing in the terms of loans.
I'm still waiting for the shoe to drop on residential real estate.
Go read the terms for variable rate mortgages and focus on the terms that state how/when the rates adjust up/down. The prime interest rate in the US rose last year, so it'll take time for variable rate mortgages to adjust up. Variable rate borrowers could will see a 2x-4x increase in their monthly payments, which would lead to widespread foreclosures within 6 months (depends on how much savings and credit each household has left). That is the most likely thing to cause a residential real estate crash.
There is a very small chance that the stock market could crash before the residential real estate market crashes, in which case a lot of people would lose their jobs and then their homes. Not sure which woudl be worse.
There is also the possibility of a national eviction moritorium (or even multiple eviction moritoria at the state level), like Trump ordered in 2020. That would be worse, because it would lead to bail-ins. But it would make the then-president look like a hero to a lot of people.
and the overbuilding continues
Imagine pouring millions into a building on the eve of a crash that will be second only to the Great Depression. A lot of people are living the high life, simply because they don't remember what happened 2007-2013, and it's tragic.