151 sats \ 8 replies \ @kepford 22 Mar \ on: Commercial Real Estate Threatens "Hundreds of Banks" econ
Interesting about the cranes. I always use that as a sign for a cities growth. I remember being in Nashville, I think it was 2020 or 2021 and I could not believe the number of cranes I saw. I think I counted 10.
I'm not convinced we will see a collapse in residential real estate if only because there is still less supply than there should be. If it does happen my guess is that it will be as a result of an increase in job losses, business closures, and things that affect people's ability to make house payments. But who knows.
A "collapse" could be compositional. People have been moving in extremely large numbers out of very expensive major metros into relatively inexpensive mid metros.
Declines in major metro home prices could easily dwarf gains in mid metro home prices, since the baseline is so much higher.
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Collapse in real terms likely. Nominal not so sure.
We aren't allowed to have recessions anymore remember. Let alone massive property value collapses that will affect the banking system. It all gets made whole in nominal terms in my opinion. At least the stuff the important people own. I am sure some folks get taken out to the woodshed like the regular folks that lost their homes in 2008.
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Maybe they'll give property holders a tax credit if they donate those homes to the homeless.
Bail out the real estate owners, then repossess the properties that don't pay their taxes and auction them off. That way taxpayers get fleeced into eating the losses under the guise of a well meaning program to "house the unhoused".
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I'll check. My profession is largely dedicated to rationalizing stupid government policies. It's not a skillset I value, but I do have it.
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Are you familiar with the term "sinecure"?
Also a prominent feature of my profession
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I wasn't familiar with that term until right now.
Good gig if you can get it.
I had a very good contract job in 2022 that only required around two solid hours a day to complete and paid fairly well but unfortunately they didn't renew after the 6 month term ended. It was shortly after that ended that I started spending a lot of time on SN. I have really only done odd jobs since then. I do get some commissions from my old business and the occasional project but it doesn't amount to much. I am actively looking for something new now but I am very selective. I only apply for things I think I will really like or work well with my family schedule.