I don't know. I just expect that to be something we see, so I guess that means better than 50-50. It fits with my hypothesis that we live on the dumbest timeline.

It also doesn't need to be one of the current parties. Maybe some late comer will swoop in without knowing what they're doing.

Undisciplined

when you say “fully expect”, what kind of odds are you predicting?

bitcoin

Should Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF Trade at a Discount or Premium?

I really don't have much reason for choosing premium, beyond thinking that if Fidelity took this alternate path, they likely had someone in-house who knew about custody options.

That said, I fully expect one of these new major Bitcoin holders to catastrophically mishandle their stack. Maybe it will be Fidelity.