pull down to refresh
25 sats \ 1 reply \ @south_korea_ln 12 Mar \ on: Tough Questions for Libertarians 1/15 libertarian
My take is that we humans are notably bad about predicting the future, at any level. We try to see causation whenever there is some correlation. We fail to see that many problems, especially the ones based on human emotions (economy) or the ones that are very hard to model accurately due to their chaotic nature (climate), are very complex and usually don't lead to what we imagine in the short-term.
Paradoxically, I am still of the belief that in the long-term, we are heading to some pretty bad times due to price inflation and a paradigm-shift is necessary, similarly to how I believe the climate is changing and future generations will feel the consequences of our inactions.
I say paradoxically, because if one cannot predict the short-term accurately, it feels even more unlikely that one can accurately predict the long-term.
My bias is showing in both cases here as I believe in the dangers of QE and the impact humans have on climate change.
It's not that unreasonable that long-term predictions could be more accurate than short. In the subjects at hand, there's a lot of timing uncertainty, so almost anything could happen in the short-term while fundamentals drive the long-term.
reply