There's some amount of adverse selection going on for sure. Hysterics get more attention than the calm and measured.
In both of these cases, though, I think the issue was that people thought they had a solid understanding of the situation and these predictions seemed straightforward. Also in both cases, we're talking about extremely complex systems and it's just not possible to account for every relevant factor.
this territory is moderated
Yes. Perhaps alarmism and oversimplification both play roles.
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