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yeah it still feels like the very early days for starlink. what do you think their total addressable subscriber market is?
do they get more than 1 billion subs at some point?
Good question. That sounds like a lot but is probably on the low side, given that the number of connected devices and plans will drastically increase.
  • Already 275m U.S. mobile devices, 832m in Europe, 80m in U.K. and much more elsewhere.
  • There are double-digit internet connected devices in Western Europe and North America per person.
  • 8.9bn worldwide cellular subscriptions already and continues to increase. Very speculative but I believe 60% of those customers could end up utilising starlink infrastructure, even if not directly, via their existing providers. I just don’t see any of their competitors really getting close for the foreseeable, but I hope I’m wrong.
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A single cablemodem serves all in that household. A single fiber connection serves all in a company.
A single dish can serve multiple users. So while there may indeed be a billion people some day who communicate using LEO satellite constellations (which includes Starlink), it's very unlikely a billion subscribers -- unless you also include their LTE (Direct to Cell) subscribers.
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I would absolutely include LTE, since most networks in the west are keen on using Starlink for the time being to “fill in” blind spots.
In a few years however they may be in direct competition with Starlink, who are also building base stations on the ground.
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