reply on: Bitcoin’s Long Term Value (2021) \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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I've been playing around with this simulator of Bitcoin's long-term value. Thanks to @elvismercury for turning me on to it.

It's hard not to feel like Bitcoin is still wildly underpriced after feeding in a bunch of different sets of seemingly reasonable parameters.

This thing is too bearish for me. Haha.

Just kidding. It's quite fun. I will add this to my list of procrastination tools along with nfl mock draft simulators and nba lottery simulators.

The element it highlights that I wasn't giving enough consideration is discounting those future projections to present value.

Have you tried setting everything at max and seeing what result you get?

No, that would mean considering every asset to be pure monetary premium and saying that bitcoin will certainly capture all of that value this year.

Best I could do is $333,036,345

I only got $27 million. Did you inflate all the market caps?

Yes but only to 999 trillion each. I was reasonable.

Sounds like you were using 2025 dollars for your valuations.

It's interesting that even on the bearish estimate we aren't even halfway to the fair market valuation.