In my previous article #455231 we discussed a little bit about everything, about the costs of production, utilities, etc but the 3 main lessons i wanted to clarify is that the world we are getting is a world where deflation will rule and we need to act according to it, let me explain the inevitable deflationary bomb of the times to come:
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Bitcoin is deflationary money and good money always drives bad away bad money.
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The costs of labour will go down close to zero or lets say zero for our mental models to work.
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Ai will make mental labour obsolete and robotics will make manual labour obsolete, we are not at that point yet but our overlords want that so we better prepare physically and mentally for that.
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Energy is a big variable, if perovskites keep improving the price of solar energy will keep going down to become even more cheaper than fossil fuels but if they don´t become cheaper and our resources constrain become more apparent then in the next 10 years solar will probably follow a sigmoid curve in terms of prices because manufacturing them will be costly if we need a lot of silver and other metals that are getting more scarce as time goes on.
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The costs of physical resources will remain, they may go down to zero if we start space mining but that will take a long time, probably way after we invent fusion.
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Utilities like trash collection and water ideally would become cheaper if energy prices fall, desalinating water would be possible if nuclear energy or solar was super developed but the first one was stopped by regulations and the second one time will tell.
but most likely our future timeline at least for the next 20 years will be like this,
mental labour costs slashed to zero due to ai,
physical labour costs slashed to zero due to robotics,
energy costs slashed to zero due to the invention of nuclear reactors that can keep fusion energy going or fission gets deregulated or promoted by the goverment,
physical resources getting more costly as we are having trouble finding more viable places to mine heck we might even mine antartica,
water becomes more expensive because pollution.
It sounds incredibly dystopian to live in a world where the elite no longer needs the peasants to work and everyone becomes a NEET, still things aren´t as bad as they look to be, if the world becomes deflationary it means savers stop getting punished by the printing of money, it means prices falling and the natural metagame of inflationary money gets punished for example zombie firms that need to borrow and borrow thrive with inflation but they feel punished with deflation, the systems that need less energy to keep themselves alive will be the systems to thrive, giant organizations like the European union may not last the next century because as the big bureaucratic machine that they are, they really need a shit load of taxes to work but europe is rapidly becoming irrelevant to the rest of the world, china and india will be more relevant and the usa already dominates, not saying the same thing isn´t happening to the united states but its going slower. So lets explain why these giant organizations will not survive the next century, lets go to one of our favorite books, we are talking about the sovereign individual, the book talks how nation states will need to fight for valuable citizens and their precious taxes so it seems inevitable that governments to work will have to downsize and work with the minimum amount of resources available, something like Milei where with his libertarian ideas is trying to make the slow and bloated argentinian state into a modern neoliberal state capable of competing in international markets.
What we need to understand here is the paretto rule applys to everything, only a few onlyfans models get all the most money, a few writers get all the money, we even see the paretto rule in bitcoin where most people are broke and the base chain can only be used without problem with people who already have 0.4 bitcoin or 1 bitcoin, to escape neetdom you will have to get whale clients and you will have to become excelent at something like for example entertainment.