My biggest fear as we cease being the world's greatest power is that our relatively high levels of freedom are blamed for our weakness and we start following the lead of whoever is the world's greatest power. Tucker's somewhat notorious Russian grocery store and subway videos are an early version of the sentiment I'm imagining. Tucker doesn't blame freedom for the difference obviously, but if/when we decline, we'll start looking for inspiration elsewhere and elsewhere isn't very free.
If we are making a mistake believing our freedom was the cause of our dominance, it can also go the other way. As a person that loves freedom independent of its national utility, I don't feel confident in the conclusion that more freedom leads to greater dominance unless we hold everything else as being equal. And in the case of countries like China, everything else isn't equal.
Must the next world power be free?
I think you are describing pre-WW2 America when elites openly complemented the fascists in Europe for their efficiency and order. In the U.S. FDR enacted many fascist policies and was extremely popular for it. Even if today we know that his policies prolonged the great depression and imprisoned many Japanese American's in prison camps.
All that to say I share your concern as we have been in this situation before. I have even heard seemingly intelligent people openly say we should copy China(they mean the CCP) in different ways. I have to say my confidence in the average American valuing liberty and freedom above order and control is low. Its based on many years of conversation and underlined by the Covid pandemic. Sure, plenty of people don't want someone else forcing them to do something they don't want to do but very few seem to be concerned with enforcing their will through force on others through the proxy of the state. We could go down a dark path. I believe we will. Just not sure how many more years of relative freedom we have left.
My hopefulness is not in the US though geopolitically speaking. I believe that other smaller nations that have longer memories and pain from living under socialism/communism/fascism will become beacons of liberty. We just do not appreciate our wealth and liberty in the U.S. We do not understand where it came from. We have been slowly killing it for decades.
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I so often hear good people talk about the government doing this or that. Regulating this or that without even a thought of the default state of man. It is poverty and nakedness. Free trade and markets have allowed us to become extremely wealthy. We are slowly killing the golden goose. Wealth these days is just a given. It is just assumed there will always be some fat cat to tax. I can't help but imagine how much discovery and knowledge has been missed because many parts of the world have been under the thumbs of dictators and oppressive governments backed by "democracies". A young man from a poor nation could have come up with a cure for cancer had his nation had the infrastructure to provide education. Instead he has to think about where his next meal will come from. We have no idea what humanity is missing out on. Its why I'm so annoyed by the environmental movements obsession with taking away the tools that were used to build the industry in Europe and North America from the rest of the world. They are being cursed to live in the past while we live in the future. Seemly no thought goes into the tradeoffs of anything.
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I share your sentiment but simultaneously hold out hope this simple fact: Vikings row faster than slave ships.
Few understand this.
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Those in the US can look across the pond over here to the UK and Europe to see where you end up!
But seriously, imv the US will obvs remain a global power, based on demographics and the US$. The change for the US is that India and China will also be global powers. Increased protectionism in the US is a natural reponse to that threat.
From a BTC pov, I dont believe USD will die, it will be just as strong against everyone else apart from these two. And in a multi polar world, splitting state and money makes more sense to more people as they see they have a choice and maybe dont want to choose sides...
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I imagine the best case scenario for the US is that it becomes like post WW2 UK.
Worst case, the wall along the southern border everyone is so obsessed with will be used to keep US citizens out of Central and South America in >70 years.
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The change for the US is that India and China will also be global powers.
There is usually one showstopping global power. It's been that way for all of history. I haven't seen an argument for why that would change suddenly ... unless we assume the global reserve currency changes to something less centralized.
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Oh Tucker. He gets so close but yet so far from the point. I really dislike what he does but not for the reasons his haters dislike him.
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Do you think Ray is stacking a lot of sats in secret? Or is he really this oblivious
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In my study of him, him and Bridgewater aren't very secretive. Their strategies are pretty straightforward. They pay a lot of attention to governments, global trends, and their history. Bitcoin is out of their wheelhouse.
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No doubt. Those who have power has options and those country who only have have a power to survive each day will just obey to those who have great power.
I read this or saw it in Classroom of the Elite "The one who held the great power has the option while those under them have not"
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Must the next world power be free?
"Can it actually afford not to?" This question crossed my mind while reading the last sentence of the original post. I don't have a definitive answer, but it's hard for me to imagine bitcoin in a world without freedoms...
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China may not make it. The economy is unraveling and many millions had a taste advancing incomes and wealth.and travel. I think they will have the mother-of-all depressions, major social upheaval (bloody civil war), a renaissance, and then they thrive and lead the world.
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