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218 sats \ 7 replies \ @Undisciplined 2 Mar \ parent \ on: Capital Formation Weekly #2 mostly_harmless
Yes. "Something like that" is very relevant. My view is that those insights may be sufficient to explain the reluctance to move huge shares of capital into bitcoin at any given time. The dynamics you describe mean timing is even more difficult than with normal assets and totally rational risk aversion is continuing to direct capital towards conventional assets.
Another element is the enormous gulf in expectations. Many of us (myself included) are expecting this technology to be truly revolutionary and emerge as the global money. The vast majority of people have no such expectation. That means the price will remain well below where people like myself expect it to end up.
However, the implication of that line of reasoning is closer to "If we're right, there will be tremendous returns once everyone else realizes that we're right." So, a question emerges: "Should we proceed as though we're right, or not?"
Slight refinement:
"If we're right, there will be tremendous returns once everyone else realizes that we're right."
On what timescale, though? That's everything. If I was eighteen, maybe I would care less.
So, a question emerges: "Should we proceed as though we're right, or not?"
Concretely, what would that mean to you?
To me, the timescale issue seems entirely determinative of this question. Like, if you're Saylor, and so rich your entire btc portfolio can go to zero and you still have a yacht, you can lean into this one. If you're a normal person, maxing out all debt instruments is either epic-level ballsy or else a cautionary tale about the dude who ruined his family's lives.
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I agree that the timescale is highly relevant, as is uncertainty in the timescale. My reluctance to go all-in has more to do with my uncertainty in the timescale of mass adoption than thinking I won't see it.
I strongly believe the maxim that "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" and in that meantime I have to materially provide for my family.
I haven't fully thought through what behavioral differences I should take with these radically different purchasing power estimates, but it would be ridiculous to treat an asset going to $100k the same as an asset going to $10B.
I'll probably end up rationalizing that I should be spending more time on Stacker News, since that's the conclusion I want to reach anyway.
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I'll probably end up rationalizing that I should be spending more time on Stacker News, since that's the conclusion I want to reach anyway.
When I reflect on my financial decisions over the last few years, the one constant is that I would've done better had I focused more on bitcoin. I've often avoided focusing on bitcoin by listening to the rational-sounding maxim, “Past performance doesn't guarantee future success.” But part of rationality is knowing when common proverbs don't apply too.
Having posted here ~2 years now, I've observed my old posts growing in value over time, which is an odd feeling when compared to the incorrigible timesinks of other social media sites.
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Meaning literally growing in value -- accumulating sats? Or a more expansive sort of value, like seeming increasingly true?
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Well, both actually. What I said has becoming increasingly true, since I was writing about El Salvador and the propaganda push that was being prepared against them, which............ 🤡
But apart from that, yes, I meant the sats. The buying power those posts generated has grown, so I can buy more ribeye steaks 🥩 today than I could then.
So the work I did here on SN is still generating value. That's actually not even the case with my fiat mining job. The energy I put into fiat writings 2 years ago is gone, whereas even my SN shitposting energy is preserved and something I can still access.
(That's what I was trying to express to @Undisciplined too, that our posts here on SN can be deceptively valuable, in the sense that even our shitposting energy generates value that doesn't go away.)
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Agreed, it's a powerful idea for sure. Makes me full of anticipation for the future.
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I'll probably end up rationalizing that I should be spending more time on Stacker News, since that's the conclusion I want to reach anyway.
The human condition in one sentence :)
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