One counter argument seems to be that oil prices are down in the last few weeks, but haven’t been fully captured by decreasing gas costs. Perhaps that will be seen in next month’s numbers.
Other than that, I don’t know how much good news there is for consumers. I keep thinking the next inflation number will be lower, and I keep getting it wrong.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.3 percent in June
1.7% per month, compounded over 12 months, would be 17%. So if the next year continues to have inflation at the rate of the past few months, we'll be north of 15% by next Spring.
This is insane.
Summer last year had a few 0% MoM numbers. This means the inflation number of the next few months could be insane YoY.
I wonder what the reaction would/will be when people read double digit numbers
One counter argument seems to be that oil prices are down in the last few weeks, but haven’t been fully captured by decreasing gas costs. Perhaps that will be seen in next month’s numbers.
Other than that, I don’t know how much good news there is for consumers. I keep thinking the next inflation number will be lower, and I keep getting it wrong.
That's a good point. Energy is quite volatile and has a ripple effect through the economy
I'd call it domino effect.
Some parts of it are also pretty irreversible.
We can calculate that:
1.7% per month, compounded over 12 months, would be 17%. So if the next year continues to have inflation at the rate of the past few months, we'll be north of 15% by next Spring.
I'm thinking we're going to see double digit CPI here in a few months. So the true rate of inflation will probably be like low 20s then.
How much do you think CPI is being underreported by?
I’m sure there is underreporting going on, but not sure how to quantify that.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Shadow stats will show you the CPI calculated using the methods from 80s and 90s
I think it’s about double what they’re reporting now
this is great, thanks!
Can someone explain to me why BTC and gold are dropping while the inflation is rising?
in the short-run, i can see how bitcoin is linked to risky assets and tends to trade in tandem with tech stocks when markets fall quickly.
in the long-run, i would be surprised to see bitcoin not respond to higher inflation with a higher price tag.
don’t forget, bitcoin is 2-4x higher than it was in early 2020, prior to the money-printing that caused this inflation.
when in doubt, zoom out.
What about gold though? Gold is barely up if at all relative to 2020.
Bitcoin is eating into it’s use case as a store of value, and will continue to over time.
I think gold’s performance in the next decade depends on how much of its market Bitcoin can eat, and how quickly that happens.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1547198554405588993 https://nitter.it/Schuldensuehner/status/1547198554405588993 <-- Can be easier to read
and bitcoin slumps :(
LFG TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Probably nothing. "we now understand better how little we understand about inflation" ~ Joker Powell
поехали на 10.01%
эй холдеры? вы где? или это скам слоган или их не существует... или они ещё не организовались...