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543 sats \ 2 replies \ @freetx 23 Feb 2024 \ on: A [pro] Marathon Slipstream rant: bitcoin

Its hard to know how its going to play out.

  • If BTC prices go 3-4x minimum each halving, then perhaps miners are able to still make enough profit without going "memepool subscription" model
  • On the other hand why would prices continue to go 3-4x each halving?.... after all miners are producing less and less coins so, their impact is becoming negligible.
  • If each halving starts producing less upward effect on prices, then miners will need a new revenue source.
  • If prices go up by 3-4x, then what happens to fees? You could make the argument that insanely high BTC prices will put downward pressure on fees
  • Or will a shift to payment processors and large financial institutions make up the difference (Blackrock probably doesn't care about a $350 fee to send $800,000,000)?

There are so many moving parts that its hard to accurately predict how its going to play out.

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473 sats \ 0 replies \ @mallardshead OP 24 Feb 2024

Nobody knows true. The energy transition is a big influencer, we've yet to see the first mining PPP (private public partnership) play out with the indie LavaPool of El Salvador (could they wind up the money laundering capital of the world?), and what will the global regulation chess board look like for jurisdictional arbitrage? I feel after watching the 10k's of many public mining companies, most will consolidate or go bust. Any of them that can prove the miner-pool model (as opposed to just directing hash to a pool) have huge flexibility to pounce on innovation or contracting, and to build trust, which will earn them those enormous sized txs submitted directly representing many interests. I always assumed mining probably moves to a higher order, where nation states, diverse PPPs, and renewable energy operate.

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210 sats \ 0 replies \ @030a29f333 24 Feb 2024

About downward pressure on fees, are you talking in bitcoin terms?

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