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Ontario’s Real Estate Industry Loses 45,000 Workers in 1 Year (25% of total)
2920 sats \ 13 comments \ @kr 17 Feb econ freebie
Saw a crazy stat today that Ontario (Canada’s most populous province) has seen a 25% drop in the number of realtors in one year.
Source: Toronto Star
The province had 190,600 realtors in Dec 2022, and is now down to 145,700.
While the drop itself is shocking, it’s also shocking to note that the 145,700 remaining realtors in Canada make up 1% of the entire population (and closer to 2% of all employed people in the province).
In Toronto specifically (Ontario’s largest city), there are 73,000 licensed real estate brokers and sales people who made a combined 65,000 sales last year. That’s not even one home sale per person per year.
The article mentions that many of these realtors are part-time, but it’s wild to see the effects of the interest rate whiplash we’ve had over the last couple years.
Q4 sales data isn’t in yet, but from Q3 2022 to Q3 2023, it looks like the price of an average home is down by 4%.
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561 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 17 Feb
I am not surprised at all by this. How many people became realtors, even if it was just part time, during the peak of low interest rates and housing craziness in Canada. It's a good counter signal like people buying jpegs for 2M bucks.
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 17 Feb
for sure.
what’s your take on canada’s real estate market moving forward? is the industry going to be buoyed by spring interest rate cuts or is there still a lot of rough water ahead?
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939 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 17 Feb
If we get rate cuts I am sure it will buoy some buying and price appreciation. I have no idea what happens in the short term but I have been concerned about the long term stability of the Canadian housing market for many years now. Maybe it doesn't crash but maybe we have a lost decade at some point where it doesn't keep up with inflation.
People intuitively know they need to short the dollar (in this case the Canadian dollar) in the long run. They just haven't figured out that Bitcoin is a better way to do this than real estate.
(I still think people should own their own home. But buy a home because that's where you want to live and you can afford it not because you are trying to maximize investment return)
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502 sats \ 2 replies \ @ch0k1 17 Feb
Do you think this might be a sign for the next real estate crisis? 🤔
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10 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 17 Feb
possible - the drop in sales volume tells me at the very least buyers and sellers are not agreeing on prices.
from here it’s hard to know if the sellers capitulate first and accept lower home values or if buyers get the interest rate cuts that will let them buy more expensive homes.
i’m leaning towards sellers capitulating first, but wouldn’t necessarily say that it will result in a “crisis”. a re-pricing on its own is possible too.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @ch0k1 17 Feb
To honest, I want the former too since cheap money are never the solution - it just worsens the problem...
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453 sats \ 1 reply \ @jeff 17 Feb
Psst...
That’s not even one home sale per person per year.
It usually two agents to sell a home. A buyer. A seller.
So, 65,000 sales = 130K customers. Each customer paying probably an average of $30K.
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30 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr OP 17 Feb
good point
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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @jeff 17 Feb
I think many of those 73K licensed real estate brokers, are actually just investors representing themselves. If you represent yourself in a purchase or sale, you can save ~2.5%. If the average property is $1.2M, thats $30K a pop. And, if you don't trust brokers to represent your best interest, you might even be able to do better in the negotiations (improving price).
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nkmg1c_ventures 17 Feb
I think many of those 73K licensed real estate brokers, are actually just investors representing themselves. If you represent yourself in a purchase or sale, you can save ~2.5%. If the average property is $1.2M, thats $30K a pop.
Good point
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25 sats \ 0 replies \ @nkmg1c_ventures 17 Feb
The market will never meaningfully correct, sales will just become less frequent, with higher nominal sticker price imo. The Canadian government is dead set on mass immigration and there aren't even enough shoeboxes in the sky to go around, let alone single family home sales that realtors can piggyback on.
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @KeynesianClowns 17 Feb
First thought was the excessively high prices coupled with higher rates pushing many potential buyers out of the market. Would love to see numbers for cities like NY and LA, who pursued similar policy agendas.
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871 sats \ 0 replies \ @brandonsbytes 17 Feb
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