Yes, but only the flows out of the Grayscale ETF into another ETF show up (in the cumulative) in an ETF holdings analysis. The flows out of Grayscale into privately held BTC are missed by such an analysis (which is the analysis you have made in this post).

You gave 3 options on what Grayscale holders might do - 1) move from Grayscale to an ETF with a lower fee, 2) cash out and 'pay off debts or buy a truck', and 3) stay in Grayscale. Option 2 you described as "the sell pressure that will hold the BTC price down". What I am pointing out is that cashing out and then rebuying BTC directly was not something you had accounted for (in your initial post; you've acknowledged it in yr reply).

Sorry if I'm belabouring the point somewhat but I think it's important to realise that just because ppl exit a BTC ETF (either Grayscale or one of the newer funds at a later time), that doesn't necessarily mean they are exiting Bitcoin and creating sell pressure. They may be doing the more enlightened thing (in my and many others' view) of cashing out to buy and hold directly. And I think this will happen over time - shifts from ETF exposure to direct exposure.