Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Sovereign Game Theory \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Sovereign Game Theory

5418 sats \ 21 comments \ @siggy47 2 Feb bitcoin

I have come across the idea of Sovereign game theory when reading about speculative hyperbitcoinization scenarios. Maybe we're watching a form of it now. The US has approved spot Bitcoin ETFs. The first spot Bitcoin Hong Kong ETF will likely start trading next week. Arthur Hayes described it like this in a tweet:

“Competition is amazing. If the U.S. has its proxy asset manager, BlackRock, launching an ETF, China needs its proxy asset manager to launch one, too,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Qatar may be making big buys through their Sovereign wealth funds: https://coinedition.com/saudi-arabia-qatar-rumored-1m-btc-buy-could-come-next-week-analyst/

Is this the start of nation state FOMO, or just a figment of Max Keiser's imagination?

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980 sats \ 3 replies \ @kepford 2 Feb

I'm pretty sure this is the gradually part of gradually then suddenly.

157 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined 2 Feb

I agree. The suddenly part will happen sometime after the infrastructure exists to mass exchange fiat for bitcoin, but the timing will be unknowable.

134 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 2 Feb

Yep.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptofolyo 2 Feb

i think its coming to suddely part immediately like the meta stock melting up due to inflation bitcoin also FOMO can kick start

458 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 2 Feb

Middle eastern nations fomoing into mining might be the precursor to this.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 2 Feb

Does this affect the oil market or are you thinking about stranded assets?

296 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr 2 Feb

Canada was oddly a leader in the ETF race, we’ve had BTC ETFs for 2 years now

43 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 OP 2 Feb

I know. It's weird how no one takes that into consideration. Canada is a pretty big player economically. Are they tiny?

338 sats \ 0 replies \ @kr 2 Feb

i think the biggest one here has 32k btc, so not nothing

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @joda 2 Feb

Wasn't the first gold ETF in Canada like 20 years before anyone else?

290 sats \ 0 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 2 Feb

I'm reminded of a Satoshi quote...

It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

We've seen this play out before. We'll see it play out again.

351 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 2 Feb

Its gonna be interesting to watch as nation states start to mine and how that may influence US State regs on US miners.

I suspect the US will lose some of its dominance of hash rate.

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 OP 2 Feb

I agree, unless they realize the risks. China is now paying the price for banning mining.

106 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 2 Feb

Yeah, the hopeful future is that the US state realizes the folly of banning mining and the destruction of "regulating" it. It is incredibly insulting to believe the state has any right to say how one uses electricity one pays for.

289 sats \ 2 replies \ @OT 2 Feb

$43 billion spot buy?

I doubt it....

31 sats \ 0 replies \ @siggy47 OP 2 Feb

I doubt it too. And, if they were planning something like that, they wouldn't do it when everyone is expecting it.

101 sats \ 0 replies \ @DiedOnTitan 2 Feb

While we are speculating here, let me throw in my 2 sats: No one can buy 1 million whole bitcoin for $43 Billion in one fell swoop. Back of the envelope computation says they would be lucky to get 400k BTC for this price, and a buy of this size will trigger a new ATH breaking $100k. But buying spot at this level reeks of desperation. There are other, including sinister, ways to accumulate that kind of coinage: Force MSTR and GBTC to loosen their coins somehow. Scare hodlers into selling with some serious 6102 level FUD. Get Coinbase to go fractional. Use the futures market. Buy miners and build hashrate. Perhaps all of the above. Bottom line. Stay humble and stack.

168 sats \ 0 replies \ @kurszusz 3 Feb

Yes, I think this is the real start of institutional (governamental) FOMO. Btw...we will see it, how BlackRock will destroy all of the other Bitcoin ETF competitors because of their volume

224 sats \ 0 replies \ @cryptofolyo 2 Feb

True - it is possible

224 sats \ 0 replies \ @OriginalSize 2 Feb

Reordering a truckload of popcorn. How many big exchanges or homes are there for these kinds of ETFs? It's going to be cra when the price actually does something.

51 sats \ 0 replies \ @Anonymous_Hodler 3 Feb

I love game theory… just the speculation makes the thing more real… pressure is pumping just because of uncertainty and feat the be left behind, it’s amazing…