I think people generally took the J Pow's overall stance as slightly hawkish yesterday. Which I think was surprising to most, especially on the same day as a new bank crisis appeared to be brewing.

I guess I expect the mainstream narrative to be about the same as it was before yesterday. Everyone's expecting slow rate cuts starting in July, with no cuts until then.

But that's never how cuts historically happen. They "take the elevator down" because something starts to break. My thesis is that we will get an elevator moment before July.

The Fed has convinced everyone that they're going to take the stairs down, just as they took the stairs up. This is the soft-landing dream. Maybe this time is different and it will turn out that way. Everyone seems to believe that's how it will play out. Historically, though, something forces them to take the elevator down, and I kinda think it will be like that again this time. But I can't say for sure.