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In "Related posts" you have one from @k00b that literally says "Bitcoin had a 2 block chain split at height 788686
And look those are really rare, but 1 block reorgs are much more common "There are 2 blocks at height 827853" https://forkmonitor.info/nodes/btc
But like, yeah they're rare and a 2 block reorg is big news, but 6 confs is an old best practice that still gets quoted around.
Another consideration that plebs don't need to worry about, is if the size of the transaction is more than the cost to bribe miners (more fees paid out of band than in band) and/or the cost to run those miners yourself (which is a lot of freaking money) to reorg a number of blocks (with 2x the cost with every block) then there is a hypothetical risk that the payer might find it worthwhile to pay all of that money if they believe it means they'll get more money back as a result.
thanks for the link; I was looking for something just like that and couldn't find it.
I didn't even think about conflicting transactions in the mempool, but they've got to be mostly fee bumps and not double-spend attempts. My guess is even the double-spend attempts are not malicious; they're just people whose transaction hasn't gone through yet so they try again.
Yah I don't know if there's black market for bribing miners, but man that's got to cost a lot of money and it still isn't going to work most of the time.
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