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Have you seen the "luck surface area" construction? It's one of the things that seems Deeply True to me.
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Yes! I think I originally encountered it in Luck and the Entrepreneur: The four kinds of luck from Marc Andreesen.
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That was a coincidence actually. I didn't realize it myself until after SN launched.
It's a lesson in luck for me: the more action you take, the more likely you are to be subject to luck.